光大期货软商品日报（2026年1月30日）-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows that on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.42% to 63.46 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.05% to 14,910 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 18,141 lots to 805,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,880 yuan per ton, up 145 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed's January interest - rate meeting had no change, and the market saw Powell's statement as dovish, but it had little impact on U.S. cotton prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with reduced positions. The textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking was limited, and their raw material inventory was at a medium - to - high level. With the Spring Festival approaching, demand was weakly boosted. The current cotton inventory was at a high level this year, and imported cotton increased, so the supply was abundant. The cotton price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday and promising in the long - term [2]. - For the sugar market, the European Commission proposed to suspend duty - free sugar imports to relieve pressure on sugar producers. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the EU's raw sugar imports reached 587,000 tons, a 19% increase year - on - year, about 95% from Brazil; refined sugar imports were 155,000 tons, a 5% increase, about 43% from Brazil. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups increased. Raw sugar is in the production - realization stage in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking a trending market. Recently, due to the general rise of commodities, sugar prices rebounded significantly. If the May contract rebounds to around 5,300 yuan per ton, pay attention to enterprises' hedging intentions; in the medium - term, focus on the arbitrage opportunities between the May and September contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 3 - 5 spread was 55 yuan, down 70 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1193 yuan, up 200 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,832 yuan per ton, up 214 yuan, and the national price was 16,103 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 3 - 5 spread was 9 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main - contract basis was 93 yuan, down 30 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On January 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,243, an increase of 34 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1072 [4]. - On January 29, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,832 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,145 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,165 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,225 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On January 29, the comprehensive load of yarn was 47.4, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 24.3, down 0.2; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 50.5, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.3, unchanged [4]. - On January 29, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [4]. - On January 29, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,119, up 404 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 89 [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China's cotton price index; as well as sugar's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7][11][14][17]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many titles such as "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [19]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties like urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many awards including "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda - ash at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of varieties such as cotton and cotton yarn. He has won titles like "Senior Analyst of Textile Products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [21].