碳酸锂日报（2026年1月30日）-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.24% to 164,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 168,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 4,000 yuan/ton to 164,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,700 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 245 tons to 30,211 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - The weekly data is basically in line with expectations. The spot transaction data is good, and there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. However, the risk of short - term position disturbances is relatively large. In the medium term, without a clear negative feedback in demand, some upstream producers will conduct maintenance in the first quarter. The demand for export rush and Spring Festival stocking will still lead to an expectation of inventory reduction. Pay attention to the production schedule in February and be vigilant about the amplification of volatility and the impact of positions. If there is no new positive news, the price may face a correction risk [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.24% to 164,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 168,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 4,000 yuan/ton to 164,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,700 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 245 tons to 30,211 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - The weekly data is basically in line with expectations. The spot transaction data is good, and there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. However, the risk of short - term position disturbances is relatively large. In the medium term, without a clear negative feedback in demand, some upstream producers will conduct maintenance in the first quarter. The demand for export rush and Spring Festival stocking will still lead to an expectation of inventory reduction. Pay attention to the production schedule in February and be vigilant about the amplification of volatility and the impact of positions. If there is no new positive news, the price may face a correction risk [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 164,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 162,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,860 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,168 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 15,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 168,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 164,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,000 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 163,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 168,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 153,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 20.4 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 144,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,300 yuan to - 5,000 yuan. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 2,384 yuan to - 20,667.16 yuan. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials showed slight changes, and the prices of lithium - ion batteries also had corresponding fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][23]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025/06/12 to 2026/01/29 [36][38]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [41].