有色商品日报（2026年1月30日）-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose sharply and then quickly fell back. The LME copper price once increased by 10% during the session, and the import loss of domestic refined copper converged significantly, with the window close to opening. The sharp rise is the result of the profound transformation of the global macro - narrative, the historical inflection point of copper's supply - demand structure, and the resonance of financial market trading behavior. The current copper price logic should be viewed from the perspective of financial attributes, and the overall trend is considered to be an oscillating and bullish market. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Affected by factors such as environmental control in Henan, the tense situation between the US and Iran, and downstream pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation and domestic inventory trends [1][2]. - Nickel: The LME nickel rose 0.43% overnight, while Shanghai nickel fell 1.34%. The inventory increased. From the fundamental perspective, as the price rises rapidly, the prices of products in each link of the industrial chain strengthen, but the increase in primary nickel production and the increase in domestic social explicit inventory may put pressure on the price. In the short term, it may oscillate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long near the cost line and the actual implementation of policies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, copper prices had a sharp rise and then a quick fall. The LME copper once increased by 10%. The import loss of domestic refined copper converged, and the window was close to opening. Macro factors included the potential change of the Fed chairman and the possible government shutdown in the US, as well as the relaxation of real - estate regulatory requirements in China. The increase in LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories was recorded. The sharp rise was due to multiple factors, and the price should be viewed from the financial attribute perspective, with an oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy trended weakly. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Affected by environmental control in Henan, the tense US - Iran situation, and downstream pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to relevant situations [1][2]. - Nickel: The LME nickel rose 0.43% overnight, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.34%. The inventory increased. The Indonesian policy provides short - term support for the nickel price, but long - term potential quota supplements and high inventory are upward pressures. In the short term, it may oscillate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long near the cost line and policy implementation [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 2515 yuan/ton from January 28 to January 29, 2026. The LME inventory increased by 2150 tons, the Comex inventory increased by 3095 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 12422 tons. The import profit and loss of the active contract increased by 4426.1 yuan/ton [4]. - Lead: The price of lead remained stable. The LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 7693 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum increased. The LME inventory decreased by 2250 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 11174 tons, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.4 tons and that of alumina increased by 3.2 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of nickel - related products changed. The LME inventory increased by 132 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2614 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2784 tons [5]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 increased by 1.8%. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [7]. - Tin: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory increased by 35 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 171 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: The report provides charts of the spot premium and discount of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin are presented [13]. - LME Inventory: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years are provided [21]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin are shown [27]. - Social Inventory: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series are provided [33]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate are presented [40]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Exhibition Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award of Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [47]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research and policy interpretations [47]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides services and reports for new - energy industry leading enterprises [48].