光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - All three varieties (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as having a wide - range oscillation outlook [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - Urea futures prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton in the short term, with potential pressure from seasonal demand decline and enterprise inventory accumulation. The market is in a state of fundamental game, and the upward momentum is insufficient [1] - Soda ash futures prices will continue the wide - range oscillation trend. Although the macro and commodity market sentiment provides some support, the weak fundamentals and high inventory accumulation expectation before the Spring Festival will put pressure on the prices [1] - Glass futures prices will mainly show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The approaching Spring Festival may lead to demand decline, inventory accumulation, and weakening spot trading, but the macro and overall commodity market trends may bring some positive effects [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Research View - Urea: On Thursday, the urea futures price was firm and oscillating, with the main 05 contract closing at 1817 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33%. The supply is expected to rise further, while the demand sentiment is falling. The enterprise inventory decreased by 0.12% this week, which is beneficial for manufacturers to maintain prices [1] - Soda ash: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price was strongly oscillating, with the main 05 contract closing at 1224 yuan/ton, a 2.6% increase. The industry's new production capacity is stable, the operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 84.19%, and the weekly output increased by 1.47% to 78.31 tons. The enterprise inventory increased by 1.52% to 154.42 tons [1] - Glass: On Thursday, the glass futures price was firm and oscillating, with the main 05 contract closing at 1087 yuan/ton, a 1.78% increase. The supply is stable, the demand is differentiating, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 1.22% this week, which is conducive to manufacturers' price - holding and market procurement sentiment [1] Market Information - Urea: On January 29, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 12,699, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 325 valid forecasts. The daily output was 211,100 tons, unchanged from the previous workday and 163,000 tons more than the same period last year. The opening rate was 89.66%, a 2.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory on January 28 was 944,900 tons, a 0.12% decrease week - on - week [4][5] - Soda ash & Glass: On January 29, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 1,539, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 2,266 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged. The soda ash industry's operating rate was 84.19%, a 2.23% decrease week - on - week; the output was 783,100 tons, a 1.47% increase week - on - week. The soda ash manufacturer's inventory was 1,544,200 tons, a 1.52% increase week - on - week. The average price of the float glass market was 1,107 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase day - on - day; the daily output was 151,000 tons, stable day - on - day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 52,564,000 heavy boxes, a 1.22% decrease month - on - month and a 21.24% increase year - on - year [7][8] Chart Analysis - The section presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea and soda ash, as well as the futures price spreads of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][12][14][18][20][22] Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different research areas and have rich research experience and many awards [25]