西南期货早间评论-20260130

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Fixed Income: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - Equity Index: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - Precious Metals: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - Base Metals and Building Materials: Most products are expected to show weak or volatile trends, with some opportunities for long - positions on dips, but investors should pay attention to position management [15][17][20]. - Energy: Crude oil and fuel oil are expected to have upward space due to geopolitical risks, and long - position opportunities should be focused on [26][27][28]. - Chemicals: Most chemical products are expected to show volatile trends, with some having upward potential, and investors should pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [32][46][47]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some are expected to be strong, some weak, and investment strategies vary accordingly [72][80][84]. 3. Summary by Categories Fixed Income - Treasury Bonds: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan. Due to the relatively low yield, economic recovery, and improved risk appetite, treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. Equity Index - Stock Index Futures: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. Considering the low domestic asset valuation, economic resilience, and increased market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [8][9]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high. Given the complex trade - financial environment and central bank purchases, gold has allocation value, but recent speculation has increased, and market volatility is expected to widen [11][13]. Base Metals and Building Materials - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. With weak demand in the real estate industry and over - capacity, the price may continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The demand is at a low level, and the supply is increasing, with inventory at a high level. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities on dips [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply of coking coal may decrease during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [20]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is stable. The overall supply is still loose, but the short - term surplus has decreased. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [22][23]. Energy - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the number of active oil rigs increased slightly. Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, and there is upward space for crude oil [24][26]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following the trend of crude oil. The supply in Singapore is tightening, and the price is expected to continue to rise [28]. Chemicals - Polyolefins: The PP and LLDPE markets showed different trends. The polyolefin market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation, and the price may rise in the short - term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and production line maintenance [30][32]. - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but limited by weak demand. It is expected to oscillate strongly [34][35]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is decreasing, and the cost is supported. The demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely [36][38]. - PVC: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation. In the medium - term, supply - demand may improve, but demand uncertainty should be noted [39][41]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [42][45]. - PX: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the start - up rate is declining, and there is support from market sentiment and crude oil. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [46]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The processing fee is at an average level, the inventory is low, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [47][48]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures showed a mixed trend. The overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the cost is supported, but the domestic coal - based device start - up is rising, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [49]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the sales are improving, and the inventory is low. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate [50][51]. - Bottle Chips: On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The production load is decreasing, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts during the Spring Festival. The export is increasing, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [52]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is loose, the inventory is increasing slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be stable and weak before the festival [53][54]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The supply - demand pattern is loose, the inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [55]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. The supply is high, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate before the festival, but caution is needed [56][57]. - Pulp: On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of new orders. It is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [58]. Agricultural Products - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. There is support for the price, but short - term volatility may increase [59][60]. - Copper: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up [61][62]. - Aluminum: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell. The alumina market has an oversupply, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is increasing. Caution is needed when chasing up [63][64][65]. - Zinc: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the price has moved up, there is a possibility of a high - level correction [66][67]. - Lead: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [68][69]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but risk control is needed [69]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The macro environment is complex, the cost is rising, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [70]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing quickly, and the supply is relatively loose. There may be long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels, and long - position exit opportunities for soybean oil when the price rises [71][72]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export is increasing, and the production is decreasing. There may be long - position opportunities after a correction [73][75]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed prices fell slightly. The import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is decreasing, while that of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [76][77]. - Cotton: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [78][80][81]. - Sugar: On the previous trading day, sugar futures showed a mixed trend. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is advisable to go short in batches after a rebound [82][84][85]. - Apples: On the previous trading day, apple futures rebounded slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the production has decreased. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to long - term, and long - position operations can be considered after a correction [86][87][88]. - Hogs: On the previous trading day, hog futures fell. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - Eggs: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is at a high level, and it is advisable to take profit on previous long - position spreads [91]. - Corn and Starch: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose slightly, and starch futures were flat. The supply - demand of corn is basically balanced, and starch may follow the corn market [92][93]. - Logs: On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is entering the pre - festival end. The cost is rising, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but cost support is strengthening [95][96].