农产品日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The main 2603 contract is adjusting with reduced positions, and the prices of near - term contracts are declining. Although the purchase prices in the north port and deep - processing areas in the production area are relatively high, providing some support, the overall sales progress of farmers is still slower than the same period last year, and the downstream procurement rhythm is stable [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile. CBOT soybeans declined slightly due to the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, while the domestic protein meal is in a relatively strong and volatile state. The pre - holiday stocking demand provides support, but the arbitrage funds of buying oil and selling meal limit the increase [1]. - Edible Oils: The edible oil market is expected to be in a strong and volatile state. The BMD palm oil has reached a three - month high, driven by factors such as the rise in commodity and crude oil prices. The domestic edible oil futures prices are rising, with palm oil leading the increase. The supply guarantee is beneficial, but it is not conducive to the basis [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The egg futures have broken through the weekly oscillation range and showed a correction. The spot prices are mostly stable, and as the stocking is coming to an end, there is a risk of price decline. In the long - term, the increased replenishment willingness and decreased elimination willingness of the breeding end are not conducive to capacity reduction [1]. - Pigs: The pig market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The main 2603 contract of live - hog futures continued to decline, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. In the long - term, the trend of capacity reduction remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Argentina's central and southern regions have been experiencing continuous drought in the past two months. The long - term weather model predicts that Argentina will be relatively dry in February, especially in the first half of the month. If the prediction comes true, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and the yield forecast will have to be lowered [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads 3.2.1 Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads for various agricultural products, including corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and live - hogs 5 - 9 [5][7][8][11]. 3.2.2 Contract Basis - The report provides charts of contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live - hogs [14][17][19][24]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The agricultural product research team consists of Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and live - hog industries. They have rich experience and many honors [26].