黑色商品日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Rebar production has slightly increased, inventory accumulation has accelerated, and apparent demand has declined. However, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and with the expectation of macro - policy easing, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. The supply side shows a slight increase in global shipments, while the demand side sees a decrease in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation in ports and steel mills [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong. For coking coal, supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened. For coke, supply has decreased in some areas due to environmental policies, and demand from steel mills is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile. The manganese silicon market is driven by cost expectations, with limited demand support and high inventory. The silicon iron market is pushed by sentiment, with weak cost support and a slight increase in inventory [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 41,000 lots in positions. Spot prices rose, and national building materials trading volume was 72,900 tons. This week, national rebar production increased by 280 tons to 1.9983 million tons, social inventory increased by 232,800 tons to 3.264 million tons, factory inventory increased by 150 tons to 1.4913 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton (2%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 9,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments were stable with a slight decline, and global shipments slightly rebounded. There were 5 new blast furnace overhauls and 7 blast furnace复产, and molten iron production decreased by 120 tons to 2.2798 million tons. Port and steel mill inventories continued to accumulate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (2.69%), with a decrease of 21,423 lots in positions. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1630 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 7 yuan. Supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened [1]. Coke - The coke 2605 contract closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (2.32%), with a decrease of 1708 lots in positions. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan to 1470 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises reduced production due to environmental policies, and steel mills' demand is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5926 yuan/ton, up 2%. The main contract positions decreased by 12,587 lots to 362,400 lots. The market price in some areas increased by 50 yuan/ton. Cost is the main driver of the market, with limited demand support and high inventory [1][3]. Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5736 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The main contract positions decreased by 33,983 lots to 138,700 lots. The price in some areas increased. Production decreased slightly, demand is mainly for on - demand procurement before the festival, cost support is weak, and inventory increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 - 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][19][21]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides historical spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [24][25][26][31][32][34][36]. - 3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It presents historical spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [37][39][40]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: The report shows the historical profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 - 2026 [42][46].