粕类2月报-20260130

Group 1: Report Overview - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry [1] - The core view of the report is that the international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price pressure will gradually emerge in the follow - up; the domestic soybean meal may face supply tightening and price pressure, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal market has many uncertainties in supply [3][4][55] Group 2: Market Review - The US soybean showed a generally strong trend this month. Affected by the bearish reports at the beginning, the market faced downward pressure, but then rose due to better exports and demand [3] - The domestic soybean meal market first declined and then rose. After a large decline, the cost increase and supply uncertainty supported the price [3] - The domestic rapeseed meal market faced some pressure. Although the macro situation improved, there were still many uncertainties and the supply improved [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rise of the US soybean market was affected by short - term positive factors. Excluding the possibility of a large - scale reduction in Argentina's soybean production, the overall supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is loose, and the pressure may be gradually reflected [4] - The recent strong trend of the domestic soybean meal market was affected by the cost and the expected tight supply - demand situation. However, the market has fully reacted to the decrease in soybean arrivals and the decline in oil mill operating rates, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [4] - The main uncertainty of the domestic rapeseed meal market lies in the macro - aspect. The supply is still tight due to the lack of clear information on new rapeseed imports. In the short - term, as the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal increases, the pressure will be more obvious [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral operation: It is recommended to gradually short soybean meal and rapeseed meal according to the macro and fundamental pressure, and operate with caution [5][58] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [5][58] - Options: Seagull put options [5][58] Group 5: International Soybean Fundamentals - Supply - The US soybean production was slightly revised up. The planted area increased from 81.1 million acres to 81.2 million acres, and the production reached 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 0.09 billion bushels from the previous month. As of December 1, 2025, the carry - over stock was 3.290076 billion bushels, at a historically high level [9] - In the South American market, Brazil's soybean harvest has begun. As of the week of January 24, the harvest progress was 6.6%. Conab estimated the production at 176.124 million tons, an increase of about 4.7 million tons over the previous year; USDA estimated it at 178 million tons, an increase of about 6.5 million tons. The new - crop selling progress is slow, and the subsequent pressure is obvious [11] - In Argentina, the supply of old and new crops is tight. The old - crop inventory is expected to remain low, and the price is rising. The new - crop planting area has decreased, and the production is expected to decrease by about 2.6 million tons. As of the week of January 23, the sowing progress was 96.2%, but the crop quality is average due to less rainfall [14] Group 6: International Soybean Fundamentals - Demand - The US soybean demand is good. The average new export sales volume in the past few weeks was about 1.8 million tons, mainly to China. However, due to the price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent export competitiveness may be limited. The December 2025 crushing volume was about 225 million bushels, at a high level. The implementation of the biodiesel policy may support the crushing volume [17] - Brazil's December 2025 soybean crushing volume is expected to decline slightly but remain high. The estimated January 2026 export volume is about 3.79 million tons. The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans supports exports, but the selling enthusiasm is not high [19] - Argentina's soybean demand is declining. The December 2025 export volume was about 870,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to be about 13 million tons. The December 2025 crushing volume may drop to about 3.1 million tons, and the crushing profit has declined significantly [22] Group 7: International Soybean Fundamentals - Comprehensive Analysis - In the short - term, the international soybean market does not show obvious supply - demand pressure due to macro - factors such as the weak US dollar, which restricts the selling enthusiasm of exporters and improves the competitiveness of US soybean demand. The prices of soybeans in various regions are relatively firm [23][25] - In the long - term, due to the high - yield in South America and the high inventory in the US, the overall supply - demand pressure is obvious, and the price pressure will gradually be reflected [25] Group 8: Domestic Soybean Meal Fundamentals - The domestic soybean meal spot market has been strong this month, with the basis above +300. As of the week of January 23, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5899 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, both at high levels. The high basis reflects the expectation of future supply shortages. The January 2026 average daily trading volume is expected to be 3.809 million tons, with high forward basis trading volume. The soybean import volume in January 2026 is expected to be 7 - 8 million tons, and the crushing volume has declined. The demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing [27][31] - In the future, due to the decrease in previous ship - bookings and the decline in crushing profit, the soybean arrival volume may decrease significantly, and the oil mill operating rate may decline. The demand for soybean meal is expected to remain good, and the inventory will continue to decrease. However, the current 3 - 5 spread has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [35] Group 9: Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Fundamentals - The domestic rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro - factors. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the adjustment of import tariff policies, the possibility of importing Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is increasing, which has been reflected in the market. As of the week of January 23, the rapeseed inventory of domestic oil mills was 60,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was almost zero. The supply is low, and the demand is limited [38] - The overall supply - demand change in the rapeseed meal market is limited. The supply is tight, and the demand is average. The international rapeseed supply is loose, and the future import pressure is large. However, the price advantage of rapeseed meal may gradually emerge due to the strong performance of soybean meal [39][56] Group 10: Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - International soybeans: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, but the market does not show obvious selling pressure in the short - term. In the future, the price pressure will gradually be reflected, mainly affected by the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and the general performance of US soybean exports [55] - Domestic soybean meal: The spot market is gradually strengthening. In the future, the supply - demand situation may be strong due to the decrease in supply. However, the market has already reacted to the future supply shortage, and the long - term price pressure is obvious due to the international market pressure [55] - Domestic rapeseed meal: The supply - demand change is limited, the supply is tight, and the international supply is loose. The future import space is large, and the price is under pressure [56]