节前需求表现较好，蛋价表现较强

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs has been strong, leading to price increases. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption and the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, egg prices are likely to face pressure. Futures far - month contracts may also face pressure [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs trended strongly. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of around 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas, it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The main egg futures contracts also showed strength, with the March contract reaching a maximum of around 3098 [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spots is good, and prices are rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. After the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. It is expected that egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs was strong. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The March egg futures contract was strong, mainly affected by pre - festival stocking and rising spot prices. However, considering that the March contract is a post - festival contract, egg prices are usually low at the beginning of the year. Also, the enthusiasm for culling has started to decrease. Although the current in - production inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level, and the market's concerns about future egg prices limited the increase in the futures price [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In January, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 42.81% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 43.38% (at a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 13.81% (at a relatively high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in January changed little and was at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 92.67%. It is expected to gradually recover as the weather gets colder in the future. The hatch volume of laying hen chicks in December changed little month - on - month and decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The price of chicklings in January was at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market was 3.22 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 yuan per chick. Previously, due to weak egg prices and average peak - season demand, breeding profits were in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased, leading to an increase in the culling volume. According to Zhuochuang data, the culling volume of laying hens in major production areas nationwide in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of January 23 was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week [12][13][15] - Demand side: Near the Spring Festival, egg consumption was good. As of the week of January 23, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas nationwide was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. From the perspective of catering revenue, in 2025 from January to December, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.5136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the absolute value of catering revenue in December was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [22] - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [22] - Cost and breeding profit: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In January, the corn price was 2377 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2619 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.88 yuan per catty of eggs. As of January 23, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.44 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.31 yuan per catty from the previous week. On January 16, the expected breeding profit of laying hens was - 13.63 yuan per hen, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from the previous week [25] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On January 28, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 133.98. Vegetable prices have risen significantly recently but are at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. This month, the pork price fluctuated with little overall change. As of January 20, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.69 yuan per kilogram. Overall, the low vegetable prices have a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level pork price also has relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [28] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs is good, and prices have risen. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the previous inventory situation has improved, the farmers' enthusiasm for culling has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. The pace of capacity reduction may slow down compared to before, and egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, it is expected that the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [36]