棉系1月报：基本面有所支撑，棉价震荡偏强-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, supported by fundamentals. The new - year market rumors of a production cut have some support for the cotton price, but short - term demand may have limited boost to the market due to the approaching Spring Festival [5][6]. - It is recommended to build long positions on dips in the unilateral trading of cotton, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, cotton futures prices were mainly volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose as new cotton processing was almost finished, and the rumor of a production cut in the new year supported the cotton price. The downstream orders were average, and the approaching Spring Festival led to limited short - term demand boost. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to remain range - bound [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is expected to remain loose, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year. The expected reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area by 2660000 mu (7%) in 2026 may support the market. The market had some restocking before, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand boost was expected to be limited [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The cotton fundamentals are still strong, and there is upward space in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7][11]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the first - part market review, in January, cotton futures prices were volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose, and the new - year production cut rumor supported the price. The downstream demand was average, and the Spring Festival limited short - term demand. US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to be range - bound [13]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 cotton season, the global cotton production was adjusted down by 80000 tons to 26 million tons compared to the previous month, with an increase in China (220000 tons) and decreases in India (110000 tons) and the US (80000 tons). The demand was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the USDA planting plan in February [14]. 3.2.3 United States - The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was adjusted slightly. The new - year cotton - grain ratio is not advantageous, and the planting area is likely to be reduced. As of January 15, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.6669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 755300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%. China's cumulative signing volume was 82400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.72%, and the cumulative shipment was 32900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.13%. As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the annual estimated production, with a slower progress year - on - year [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The CAI's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, the production in the 2025/26 season was adjusted up by 130000 tons, domestic demand by 170000 tons, and exports down by 50000 tons, leading to an increase in ending inventory by 10000 tons compared to the previous month. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.64 million tons, with a market progress of 49%, a year - on - year increase of 16%. - Brazil: As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in the 2025/26 season was 31.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the three - year average, mainly due to the stagnant planting in Bahia [18][22]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply: As of mid - January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.86 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of January 22, the cumulative picked lint cotton was 7.407 million tons, the cumulative sold lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. In December 2025, the imported cotton was 177300 tons. The current internal - external price difference is around 2900 yuan/ton, and imported cotton has an advantage. - Demand: It is currently the off - season, and the approaching Spring Festival limits short - term demand. As of mid - January, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 931400 tons, the yarn inventory was 26.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.112 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, while external demand was average [24][25][26]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Global: The cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be around 25 - 26 million tons, and in the 26/27 season, it is likely to be around 25.5 - 26.5 million tons. The demand is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the USDA annual meeting's planting plan in February. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, the cotton supply is expected to be sufficient in the short - term, but there may be low - inventory trading factors in June - August. The new - year planting area is rumored to decrease, and the production in the 26/27 season may decline. The demand is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, with domestic demand likely to remain stable and exports possibly improving due to the easing of Sino - US relations [50][51].