有色板块走强，镍不锈钢震荡走高

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". The short - term price is easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing an obvious wide - range oscillation pattern. For nickel, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the price, but the rising cost of nickel ore and ferronickel provides some support. For stainless steel, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand [1][3]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of Shanghai nickel opened at 145,240 yuan/ton and closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 783,275 (+378,683) lots, and the open interest was 136,553 (+2,253) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a wide - range oscillating upward trend. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the risk appetite of global commodities recovered, the non - ferrous sector strengthened as a whole, and capital inflows pushed up the price. LME nickel was strong overnight, providing external support for Shanghai nickel. However, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the nickel price, and the demand boost from new energy vehicles is limited [1]. - The nickel ore market remained stable. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the trading atmosphere became calm. The mine side maintained a firm quotation. There was no new tender price on that day, and the FOB tender price of some mines' 1.3% nickel ore was 40 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium rose to 28 - 32 US dollars/wet ton in February, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The approval progress of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) was slow [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 151,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 450 yuan/ton to 7,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 46,854 (+2,032) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,500 yuan/ton and closed at 14,585 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,945 (-16,622) lots, and the open interest was 113,676 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel followed Shanghai nickel and showed an oscillating upward trend. The strengthening of Shanghai nickel enhanced the cost support of ferronickel. The significant reduction of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota led to the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in nickel ore quotation further pushed up the cost, providing bottom support for the stainless steel price. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction was light [3][4]. - The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,350 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point, with no change [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will be enhanced, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is mainly range operation, buying low and selling high, and setting stop - losses strictly. The medium - term strategy is to pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before laying out single - side positions. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].