纯苯苯乙烯日报：原油推动成本上涨，下游开工小幅回落-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is tense due to the lack of progress in nuclear negotiations and Trump's threat to strike Iran, leading to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices, which in turn drives cost - based increases in pure benzene and styrene. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the situation. - The pure benzene port inventory rebounded slightly at the beginning of this week. Although the arrival pressure eased, the downstream pick - up volume decreased. The downstream开工 rate decreased slightly. The styrene开工 rate is waiting to recover, the CPL开工 rate further declined, while the开工 rates of aniline, phenol, and adipic acid remained at a high level. The domestic pure benzene开工 rate remained low. There is a possibility that the US will increase tariffs on South Korea, which may lead to an increase in the pressure of South Korean pure benzene being shipped to China. - The lowest point of domestic styrene production开工 rate may have passed. Sinochem Quanzhou is in the process of restarting, and Tianjin Bohua also has a restart expectation. Attention should be paid to the actual restart progress. The styrene port inventory has bottomed out and rebounded slightly. The downstream开工 rate of EB has peaked and declined. The EPS开工 rate has entered the seasonal reduction phase, and the PS开工 rate has continued to decline. The inventory pressure of the three major hard - rubber products has been relieved [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 91 yuan/ton (+19), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 110 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 137 yuan/ton (- 28 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 179 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 177 US dollars/ton (- 5 US dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 95.0 US dollars/ton (- 11.0 US dollars/ton). The import profit and various regional spreads are also presented in the report [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 758 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.80 tons), and the domestic operating rate remains at a low level [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (+7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 62,300 tons (+3,400 tons), and the operating rate is 69.3% (- 0.4%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 81 yuan/ton (+151 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.26% (- 5.45%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 570 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 55.60% (- 1.70%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 1135 yuan/ton (+160 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 66.10% (- 0.70%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1105 yuan/ton (- 135), and the operating rate is 73.57% (- 2.60%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 781 yuan/ton (+137), and the phenol operating rate is 88.00% (+2.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1134 yuan/ton (- 107), and the operating rate is 88.53% (+0.92%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 781 yuan/ton (- 13), and the operating rate is 68.50% (- 0.60%) [1].