氯碱日报：氯碱库存继续累积-20260130

Group 1: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,895 yuan/ton (-18), the East China basis was -215 yuan/ton (-2), and the South China basis was -175 yuan/ton (+18) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted price was 4,680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted price was 4,720 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,855 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was -23 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -744 yuan/ton (+55), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit was -0.8 US dollars/ton (+5.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social PVC inventory was 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.13% (-0.85%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 1,964 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -95 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 598 yuan/ton (-1), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 852 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 411.0 yuan/ton (-3.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was -505.96 yuan/ton (-13.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 550.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 52.03 tons (+1.07), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the caustic soda operation rate was 87.40% (-0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 85.18% (-0.65%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 50.65% (-5.89%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. There was a situation of rushing to export before April, and export orders remained at a high level. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market continued to be weak. The domestic PVC supply was abundant, and there were temporary short - term shutdowns for maintenance in some plants. There were no new maintenance enterprises next week. Downstream operation of some products was flat or declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at low prices. Social inventory increased slightly and was at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price increased, and the semi - coke price was stable, with both in a loss state. PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and there was still hedging pressure on the futures market. Although the current export rush supported the spot, the export was expected to decline significantly after April, which would further loosen the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts. Attention should be paid to enterprise export dynamics and capital dynamics [3] Caustic Soda - The current spot price of caustic soda continued to be weak, and the supply - demand was also weak. The inventory in Shandong continued to increase, but at a slower pace. The overall supply - side operation was at a high level, the liquid caustic soda price declined, and chlor - alkali enterprises had a stronger willingness to support the liquid chlorine price. The price of epichlorohydrin downstream of liquid chlorine was strong this week due to pre - holiday inventory demand from downstream epoxy resin and solvents, which supported the liquid chlorine price. There were few planned maintenance enterprises for caustic soda. The demand - side receiving sentiment was average, the alumina plant operation declined slightly, the unloading efficiency was average, and some alumina plants in Shandong lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda. The production progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market was pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries were gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders remained sluggish. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in liquid chlorine downstream devices and capital dynamics [3] Group 3: Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Sideways [4][5] - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Sideways [5] - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see [5] - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]