2月CP价格环比上涨，成本端支撑偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, CP prices rose month - on - month, and the cost side had strong support. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remained tight, with strong cost - side support. The market sentiment in the chemical sector was warming up, and the futures market continued its strong trend. It was recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 6317 yuan/ton (+36), the spot price in East China was 6540 yuan/ton (-10), and in North China was 6400 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis was 223 yuan/ton (-46), and the Shandong basis was 83 yuan/ton (-36). The operating rate was 70% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 241 US dollars/ton (-16), and the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 95 US dollars/ton (+7). The import profit was - 308 yuan/ton (+75), and the in - plant inventory was 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - Propylene downstream: The PP powder operating rate was 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 200 yuan/ton (+20); the propylene oxide operating rate was 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the n - butanol operating rate was 86% (-1%), with a production profit of 1,070 yuan/ton (+30); the octanol operating rate was 91% (-5%), with a production profit of 1,270 yuan/ton (+150); the acrylic acid operating rate was 84% (+3%), with a production profit of 150 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate was 69% (-6%), with a production profit of - 954 yuan/ton (+71); the phenol - acetone operating rate was 88% (+3%), with a production profit of - 781 yuan/ton (+137) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply: PDH device shutdown news was gradually realized. Multiple PDH devices were under maintenance or restarted, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic PDH operating rate and a tight short - term supply in the propylene spot market [2] - Demand: Downstream rigid demand support continued, but after the propylene price rose to a high level, downstream costs were significantly pressured, and demand follow - up might be limited. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed changes, with different impacts on propylene demand [2] - Cost: Geopolitical disturbances between the US and Iran strengthened, causing international oil prices to rise significantly. Propane prices remained strong. Saudi Aramco's February CP for propane was announced at 545 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton, strengthening the short - term cost - side support for propylene [2] 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure was still tight, which supported prices. Geopolitical disturbances led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and the external propane market was strong. Due to profit pressure, PDH device maintenance might intensify, and the short - term futures market was expected to remain strong [3] - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Not provided