新能源及有色金属日报：库存小幅去化，碳酸锂弱势震荡-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term "strong reality" and long - term "weak expectation" are in a game. Current price increases rely on supply disruptions and pre - demand. If supply recovers or demand is overdrawn, prices are likely to correct. High price risks have accumulated, and range operations are recommended. Pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points and consider selling hedges at high prices [3] Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 169,200 yuan/ton and closed at 164,820 yuan/ton, with a - 3.24% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 521,334 lots, and the open interest was 402,347 lots (410,985 lots the previous day). The basis was 2,460 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,211 lots, a change of 245 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 162,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton, a - 4,000 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, also a - 4,000 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,250 US dollars/ton, a - 20 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - Lithium carbonate showed an oscillating trend. Due to inventory de - stocking data, it turned positive during the session but closed down after the long - short game. The exchange's high - pressure stance on violations in the lithium carbonate variety has curbed sharp price fluctuations. On the spot side, due to low downstream inventory levels and high previous prices, spot transactions were light, but pre - holiday restocking demand supported prices [1] Inventory Data - The spot inventory was 107,482 tons, a - 1,414 - ton change from the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory was 19,003 tons, a - 831 - ton change; downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a + 3,007 - ton change; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a - 3,590 - ton change [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operations - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]