农产品日报：板块整体回升，关注上方压力-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - Cotton: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - Sugar: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - Pulp: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - Market Analysis: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - Strategy: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - Strategy: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - Market Analysis: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - Strategy: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]