黑色建材日报：市场情绪高涨，煤价低位反弹-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is high, and coal prices are rebounding from a low level. The glass and soda ash markets are boosted by market sentiment, with glass and soda ash futures showing a volatile rebound. The double - silicon market is also driven by market sentiment, with the silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures showing an upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Market Analysis - Glass: The glass 2605 main contract rebounded yesterday, with increased trading volume and open interest. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures prices, and some manufacturers raised their quotes [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash 2605 main contract rebounded in a volatile manner. Spot market quotes fluctuated with the futures, and transaction prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The short - term supply shortage in the glass market continues. The continuous cold - repair of production lines and significant inventory reduction support the price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand from downstream also provides some support. Attention should be paid to the progress of production line cold - repair and the enterprise restocking rhythm [1] - Soda Ash: The weak reality of oversupply in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected, it is still at a high level. The float glass has entered the off - season, and the market is mainly for Spring Festival rigid - demand stocking. Attention should be paid to the enterprise restocking rhythm during the long holiday. In addition, driven by the warming market sentiment, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased [1] - Strategy - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) - Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: The silicon - manganese main contract rose 1.61% yesterday under the influence of the black - series futures, with a daily reduction of 12,587 contracts in open interest. The silicon - manganese spot market was strong, and factories adjusted production normally. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the northern market was 5,570 - 5,670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures were strong under the influence of the overall black - series. The price was driven up by the boost of macro - sentiment and the potential cost support. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon - Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon - manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities. The supply - demand remains loose. There is an expectation of increased pig iron production in the future, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from steel mills is expected to improve the demand for silicon - manganese. The South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3] - Silicon - Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon - iron are controllable. Enterprises actively reduce production loads. Considering the复产 of steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the demand for silicon - iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment. Considering the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon - iron, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon - iron and the electricity price policy in the production areas [3] - Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]