燃料油日报：盘面延续强势，关注伊朗局势发展-20260130

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4% at 2,831 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.09% at 3,307 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with an increasing risk of the US striking Iran. Coupled with the overall enthusiastic sentiment in commodities, oil prices rose again yesterday, driving up the prices of FU and LU. Among them, FU is more elastic to the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has improved marginally recently, with spot discounts, calendar spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well [2] - After the US gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the arrival volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China is expected to increase in January and February [2] - As the geopolitical situation in Iran heats up, the regional fuel oil supply faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which constitutes the main upward risk in the current market. However, if the situation in Iran eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue strengthening [2] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market contradictions of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited, mainly following the passive rise of the crude oil end. Recently, the crack spread has been oscillating strongly, but there is no clear trend [2] - With the dynamic changes in the Dangote and Azur refinery units, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east-west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes may increase in February, and the local market pressure may increase [2] - Looking forward, the contradictions of surplus production capacity and the replacement of the demand share in the marine fuel sector still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low-sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation. Recently, the spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to gasoline and diesel has rebounded, partially reflecting the diversion of raw materials by RFCC units, resulting in a marginal convergence of the premium [2] Group 3: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Spread Trading - No specific strategy [3] Calendar Spread - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low levels [3] Futures-Spot Arbitrage - No specific strategy [3] Options - No specific strategy [3]