化工日报：海外订单改善，半钢胎开工率回升-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global supply of natural rubber is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, which may gradually reduce supply pressure. However, there is still concentrated arrivals in China in late January, so the domestic supply is under short - term pressure. With the reduction of global supply pressure and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support for rubber. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires due to a slight improvement in orders. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, which limits the extent of domestic inventory accumulation. The relatively low price of domestic NR compared to Singapore's 20 - grade rubber indicates low valuation, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term [10]. - For BR, the strong price of butadiene has further enlarged the production loss of cis - butadiene rubber. Some private plants in North China may reduce production or switch production, which will ease short - term supply pressure. Although Maoming Petrochemical has restarted, the supply is still expected to be abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, but high prices may suppress stocking willingness, and overall demand remains stable. The support for upstream butadiene mainly comes from export benefits and overseas butadiene plant overhauls. With the continuous decline of domestic butadiene port inventory, the butadiene price is expected to remain strong, and the cis - butadiene rubber price will follow a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of downstream demand caused by high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,690 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,455 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Information - Natural Rubber Imports: In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2]. - Rubber Tire Exports: In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2]. ANRPC Report and Industry Trends - ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated this week. The production of semi - steel tires increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, and most enterprises remained stable. The shipment of all - steel tires was under pressure, and some enterprises controlled production, resulting in a slight decrease in utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be slightly weak and stable this week. During the pre - holiday stocking period, the production arrangement of enterprises has not been significantly adjusted, and inventory is stocked to ensure post - holiday supply. Some all - steel tire enterprises may moderately reduce production due to slow shipment and high finished product inventory [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On January 29, 2026, the RU basis was - 240 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+80), the NR basis was 499.00 yuan/ton (+122.00); the price of whole latex was 16,450 yuan/ton (+350), the price of mixed rubber was 15,450 yuan/ton (+250), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (+300). The STR20 was quoted at 2,000 US dollars/ton (+55), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,450 yuan/ton (+250) [4]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.11 Thai baht/kg (+0.34), the price of Thai glue was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (-0.20) [5]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.47% (-0.06%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.32% (+0.48%) [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,504 tons (-393), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,271,830 tons (-2,137), the RU futures inventory was 109,870 tons (+1,480), and the NR futures inventory was 55,339 tons (-1,411) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spreads: On January 29, 2026, the BR basis was - 590 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 10,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 579 yuan/ton (+16) [7]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.38% (+0.26%) [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,780 tons (+430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (-1,400) [9].