基本面跟随困难，铝价短期警惕风险

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Iran risk continues to ferment, causing significant fluctuations in the non - ferrous metals market. The rise in absolute prices has difficulty in downward transmission, with continuous expansion of spot discounts and accumulation of social inventories. The downstream consumption is weak, and the aluminum price has a demand for callback and repair in the short term. In the long - term, macro factors still drive the price increase [6]. - Indian alumina was traded at FOB $308 per ton for 30,000 tons. The Iran risk has a bearish impact on overseas alumina. In China, although there are many alumina plant overhauls, it is not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. The spot price has not stopped falling, and the cost support is weak [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On January 29, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,690 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed - 50 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,810 yuan/ton, with a change of 580 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,430 yuan/ton, closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 725 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,975 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 25,055 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,013,509 lots, and the position was 342,527 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 782,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 142,705 tons, with a change of - 124 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 497,725 tons, with a change of - 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 29, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was $308 per ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 46 yuan/ton (1.66%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,853 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,792 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 833,895 lots, and the position was 468,246 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 29, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 19,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,765 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 335 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral for aluminum, cautiously bearish for alumina, and neutral for aluminum alloy. - Arbitrage strategy: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [9]