化工日报：本周主港延续累库-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - On the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be large from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January have been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand has weakened [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No specific data presented in the content. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand weakened [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the capital dynamics and the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].