花生2月报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, Henan peanuts rose while Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The supply of oil peanuts was sufficient, the inventory of peanut oil increased, and the profit of peanut oil mills was still good, but the profit margin declined. The opening rate of oil mills increased significantly, and the peanut inventory also increased. The spot price of peanuts was relatively strong, the number of warehouse receipts was still low, and the cost of warehouse receipts was between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton. The peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - In February 2026, the spot price of peanuts will be relatively stable, the purchase of oil mills will also be relatively stable, and the profit of oil mills will remain high. Due to the high price of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil will still fluctuate at a high level, while the prices of peanut meal and peanut oil will be relatively stable, and the inventory of oil mills will continue to increase. After February, the import volume of peanuts will increase. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts is relatively low, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still high. It is expected that the peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 will fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Peanut Situation - Global peanut production has increased, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. According to FAS data, the global peanut production in 2025 is expected to be 51.78 million tons, including 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, 3.4 million tons in the United States, 1.8 million tons in Senegal, and 1 million tons in Sudan. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the global peanut production in 2025 is 52.36 million tons, with about 19 million tons in China, 7.5 million tons in India, 3.39 million tons in the United States, and 5.24 million tons in Nigeria. In 2025, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.3 million tons, accounting for 37.3%, and the global export volume of peanuts was 4.2 million tons, accounting for 8.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, China's peanut imports were significantly lower than last year [9]. 3.2 Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Sufficient Supply of Oil Peanuts and Narrowing Price Difference between Northeast and Henan Peanuts - In January, the price of Henan peanuts rose, while the price of Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The price of Zhengyang peanuts in Henan rose from 3.6 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 3.7 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Shandong peanuts remained stable at 4.2 yuan/jin; the price of peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin and Changtu, Liaoning fell from 4.7 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 4.6 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Huayu 23 peanuts in Xingcheng, Liaoning remained stable at 4.35 yuan/jin. In January, peanuts were gradually put on the market, the purchase volume of oil mills increased, the spot price of Henan peanuts rose, and the reluctance of Northeast farmers to sell loosened, causing the spot price of peanuts to fall. Currently, it is the stage of large - scale purchase by oil mills, and the price of oil peanuts depends on the purchase rhythm of peanut oil mills, with the purchase price of oil mills stable at 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in February, the price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will be relatively weak, and the price difference between the two regions will continue to narrow [14]. 3.2.2 Significant Decrease in Imported Peanuts and Increase in Imported Peanut Oil - In December 2025, 24,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to December, 252,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 65.6%. Among them, 17,000 tons were imported from Sudan, 18,000 tons from Senegal, 40,000 tons of shelled peanuts from the United States, 61,000 tons from India, and 39,000 tons from Argentina. From January to December, the cumulative export of peanut kernels was 212,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47%. According to the seasonal pattern of imports, the traditional peak season for imported peanuts is from March to July after the Chinese New Year. However, due to the low domestic peanut price, it is expected that the import volume of peanuts in 2026 will still be low. It is rumored that the import cost of Senegalese peanuts is 7,400 yuan/ton (with about 3% impurities). In 2025, the cumulative import of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, 58% higher than last year. The peanut kernels converted from imported peanut oil (45% oil yield) totaled 1.145 million tons, lower than the 1.298 million tons converted last year. Due to the weak domestic consumption of peanut oil, it is expected that the import of peanut kernels in February will still be low, and the import of peanut oil will remain high [23]. 3.2.3 Good Profit of Peanut Oil Mills and Continuous Increase in Peanut Inventory of Oil Mills - Due to the large - scale sales by farmers, the supply of oil peanuts was sufficient and the price was low, so the profit of oil mills was at a high level. As of January 22, the opening rate of peanut oil mills was 47.22%, higher than 26.88% in the previous month and 13.7% last year. The peanut inventory was 177,000 tons, higher than 124,000 tons in the same period of the previous month but lower than 189,000 tons in the same period last year, at a relatively high level in the past. The prices of peanut meal and peanut oil fluctuated little, and the purchase price of peanuts was at a low level, so the profit of oil mills from pressing was high. As of January 22, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills was 190 yuan/ton, lower than 278 yuan/ton in the same period of the previous month but much higher than - 346 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The profit of oil mills mainly comes from peanut oil. Generally, the contribution ratio of peanut oil and peanut meal to the pressing profit is between 2 - 4. As of the end of January, the profit of peanut oil to oil mills was 3.36 times that of peanut meal, and the theoretical break - even price of peanuts was 7,800 yuan/ton. Due to the sufficient supply of oil peanuts, much higher than the same period last year, and the price of oil peanuts will remain at the bottom for a long time, peanut oil mills will still maintain high profits in February [31]. 3.2.4 Expected Increase in New - Crop Planting Costs - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year, and the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. After removing the land rent, most of the planting costs in Henan and other places were 800 yuan/ton. Since some areas in Henan have two crops a year, the planting cost is relatively low. For Jilin and other places, the planting cost including land rent is 1,700 yuan/mu. Calculated at 450 jin/mu (peanut kernels), the cost of peanut kernels in Jilin is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. However, due to the high planting income of corn, soybeans, and peanuts in the Northeast region this year, the land rent is also rising. It is currently expected that the land rent per mu will increase by 100 - 200 yuan in the 2026/2027 season, and the peanut planting cost in the Northeast region will be above 4.0 yuan/jin [48]. 3.3后市展望及策略推荐 - In February, the supply of oil peanuts will continue to increase, and the supply will be sufficient. The price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will continue to be weak, narrowing the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts, as well as the price difference between oil peanuts and common peanuts. The import volume of peanuts is significantly lower than last year. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts after the Chinese New Year is 7,400 yuan/ton, and the current warehouse receipt price is between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton, with relatively stable warehouse receipt costs. The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal will remain at a high level, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills will still be good, the peanut inventory of oil mills will continue to increase, and the peanut oil inventory will also increase. It is expected that the price of common peanuts in Henan will fluctuate between 3.6 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the peanut futures contract 03 is expected to fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [51]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Adopt a trading strategy of range - bound thinking for the peanut futures contract 03 between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [52]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [54]. - Options: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option when the peanut futures price rises [7][54].