新能源及有色金属日报：基本面偏将但需警惕情绪影响-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are relatively strong, but the social inventory has not shown an accumulating trend despite entering the consumption off - season. The overall spot premium is stable, but it is declining in Tianjin. The domestic ore supply is weak, but the winter stockpiling of domestic smelters is basically completed with the supplement of imported ore. The imported ore continues to decline, and it's difficult for the imported ore TC to rise before the new Benchmark signing. Comprehensive smelting still faces losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is not obvious. Consumption is still optimistic in the long - term, with low inventory pressure, but short - term sentiment has a great impact. Be vigilant against the overall correction driven by the non - ferrous sector [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.06/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 25,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 25,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On January 29, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,450 yuan/ton and closed at 25,950 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest was 114,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 26,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 25,260 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of January 29, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 117,200 tons, up 400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,750 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]