停摆危机再现，贵金属走出“过山车”行情

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market has experienced a roller-coaster ride. The prices of gold and silver rose strongly during the Asian and European trading sessions on January 29 but tumbled during the New York trading session. The overall support for the safe-haven premium of precious metals remains [1]. - The U.S. federal government is facing a partial shutdown crisis, and Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1st to 2nd, which provides support for the safe-haven demand of precious metals [1]. - The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The short - term price adjustment of gold does not change the bullish logic, and it is expected to be in a volatile and strong pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 29, spot gold approached the $5,600/ounce mark and then tumbled nearly 6% to below $5,100/ounce. Spot silver broke through five price levels and then fell more than 8% to below $107/ounce, but the subsequent decline narrowed. The U.S. federal government is facing a partial shutdown crisis, and Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 29, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,189.60 yuan/gram and closed at 1,249.12 yuan/gram, a change of 5.30% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 1,202.00 yuan/gram, a 3.77% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 28,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 30,891.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 5.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 759,570 lots, and the open interest was 281,218 lots. The night - session closed at 30,358 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% decline from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 29, 2026, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.231%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.68%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by - 8,644 lots, and the short position changed by 3,331 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 687,206 lots, a 18.98% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by - 5,324 lots, and the short position changed by - 5,219 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,809,945 lots, a - 29.95% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,089.96 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,636 tons, a decrease of 212 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 29, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was - 29.06 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 157.36 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 40.44, a - 0.40% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 46.79, a 2.60% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 109,490 kilograms, a 40.78% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 687,950 kilograms, a 12.96% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be in a volatile and strong pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 29,000 yuan/kilogram and 32,000 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: Put on hold [9]