下游陆续放假，织造开机率加速下滑

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Cost side is fluctuating around the Iran situation. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and the sensitivity of oil prices to the Iran situation is much greater than that of Venezuela [1]. - PX has a positive medium - term outlook, but the current fundamental situation is weak. The increase in PX profits may lead to an increase in supply, and the demand side's maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [1]. - PTA's short - term supply and demand are accumulating, but the long - term outlook is positive as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends [2]. - The polyester industry's load is accelerating its decline, and the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [2]. - PF's demand is weak, but the inventory has decreased significantly due to price increases [2]. - PR's processing fees have rebounded, and the pre - holiday inventory reduction has been smooth [3]. - Strategies include going long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for long - term hedging, going long on PTA processing fees for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period strategy [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA's main contract spot basis is - 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton), and PTA's spot processing fee is 415 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [6][8][9][14]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 340 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][6][16]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [6][22][24]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [6][25][30]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [6][35][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester's operating rate is 86.2% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%). Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle - chip load [2][6][44]. PF Detailed Data - PF's spot production profit is - 20 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton). Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the spread between original and regenerated fibers [2][6][68]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR's spot processing fee is 581 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton). Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [3][6][83].