现货表现乏力，豆粕延续震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean meal price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to high inventory and future supply pressure from Brazilian new - season soybeans, despite short - term strength influenced by US soybeans [3] - Corn prices may be affected by downstream stocking demand, snow - affected arrivals, and inventory changes [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.22%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had stable soybean meal spot prices, with their basis to M05 decreasing by 20. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was stable, with its basis to RM05 decreasing by 28 [1] - South American Situation: Argentina's soybean sowing was 96.2% complete as of January 21, with a 10 - percentage - point drop in the proportion of normal - to - excellent crop ratings. Brazil's expected January 2026 soybean exports were 323 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and up 188% from last year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean meal and soybean inventories are high. The domestic soybean meal price is currently strong due to US soybeans, but will likely weaken as Brazilian new - season soybeans are supplied [3] Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%); the corn starch 2603 contract was 2535 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was stable, with its basis to C03 decreasing by 7. Jilin's corn starch spot price was stable, with its basis to CS03 decreasing by 5 [4] - Brazilian Exports: Brazil's expected January 2026 corn exports were 339 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but up 6.4% from last year [4] Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking starts. Snow affects corn arrivals, causing prices to rise and deep - processing enterprise inventories to increase. North port inventories increase slightly, while south port domestic inventories are consumed [5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [4]