可转债 2026 年度投资策略：持中守正，景气为纲

Group 1 - The report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 experienced a strong performance, following the equity market, with a total increase of nearly 20% by December 24, 2025, although it slightly underperformed compared to the broader A-share market which had a maximum increase of 31.9% [17] - The report highlights a significant shift in market style from defensive dividend stocks to technology growth stocks, driven by a recovery in risk appetite, which has led to an increase in the central price of convertible bonds and a compression of the conversion premium rate [8][19] - The supply-demand mismatch in the market is noted, with a slowdown in new bond issuance and a significant number of high-quality older bonds being redeemed, leading to a scarcity of quality assets and a heightened "old bond" phenomenon [8][25] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the macro liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential support from both domestic and international monetary policies, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The report suggests that the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting cycle could reshape the asset allocation landscape, benefiting cyclical resource sectors and technology growth sectors, particularly in the AI industry, which is expected to replicate the growth trajectory of the mobile internet era [10][9] - The consumer sector is characterized by resilient earnings but facing valuation pressures, with low price-to-book ratios and stable return on equity providing a safety cushion for investments [10][9]