天然气2月报-20260130

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International LNG: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [6][53]. - US HH: Short - term price surges are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are closely related to temperature. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness [6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded sharply in January. TTF rose nearly 35% from $9.7 per MMBTU to over $13 per MMBTU, driven by cold weather and geopolitical tensions [5]. - US HH: Prices had a roller - coaster ride. In early January, they dropped to around $3 per MMBTU due to warm weather and high production. Then, they soared to $7.46 per MMBTU on January 19th due to cold snap expectations [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International LNG: Short - term supply disruptions and strong heating demand support prices, but further upside is restricted. Long - term supply growth and reduced demand after winter will lead to price declines [6]. - US HH: Cold snaps cause short - term price spikes. After the cold snap, supply and demand will improve. Prices are temperature - dependent, and in February, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short HH second - quarter contracts; short TTF or JKM third - quarter contracts. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - International LNG: Prices rebounded in January due to cold expectations, low inventory, and geopolitical concerns. The first - line price rose from about $9.3 per MMBTU to a maximum of $15 per MMBTU [11]. - US HH: Prices had a V - shaped reversal in January. They fell in the first half due to mild weather and high production, then soared in the last two weeks due to cold snap expectations and a short - squeeze [11]. 3.2.2 US Market Fundamentals - Supply: As of January 28th, the average daily dry - gas production in January was about 110.6 billion cubic feet, down 2.6% from the previous month but up 6.6% year - on - year. After the cold snap on January's end, supply dropped to about 96 billion cubic feet per day, a nearly 16% decline from the monthly high [15][17]. - Demand: As of January 28th, the average daily domestic consumption in January was about 109.3 billion cubic feet, down 5.2% year - on - year. After the cold snap, daily demand reached about 140 billion cubic feet [15]. - Inventory: As of January 23rd, the total natural - gas inventory was 2823 billion cubic feet, up 9.8% year - on - year and 5.3% higher than the five - year average [16]. 3.2.3 International LNG Market Fundamentals - Europe: As of January 26th, the inventory level was 513.6 TWh, down 20.3% year - on - year, only 44.9%. The inventory consumption was faster in January. Local production decreased slightly, while imports reached a record high. Industrial demand did not recover, and gas - power demand growth was not obvious. The 2 - month cold expectation is strong, and there is no obvious expectation of wind - power expansion [25][27]. - China: In 2025, production increased 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased 2.9%. In December, production and imports increased year - on - year. As of January 23rd, LNG receiving - station and storage - reservoir inventory levels were higher than last year [31]. - Japan and South Korea: Japan's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 204,300 tons, up 2.3% month - on - month but down 4.7% year - on - year. As of January 23rd, the utility LNG inventory was 2.26 million tons. South Korea's average daily imports in January were expected to be about 142,100 tons, down 5.6% month - on - month and flat year - on - year. As of December, the LNG inventory was about 3.3 million tons, close to last year's level [32]. 3.2.4 Weather Forecast - China: North China will warm up slightly and then cool down, with overall temperatures lower than average in the next month. East China will be warm in early February and slightly cooler than normal in late February. South China's temperatures will be slightly higher than average in February [41]. - Japan and South Korea: They will warm up in early February and then cool down again, with overall temperatures slightly colder than average in the next month [41]. - US: It will remain cold in early February, and temperatures will be significantly lower than average after the cold snap. The cold expectation is strong in February [41]. - Europe: Northwest Europe will be slightly colder than average in the next two weeks and extremely cold in mid - February. Central Europe will cool down sharply in early February, warm up briefly but still be colder than normal. Italy's wind power will be strong in the short - term, and Germany's will be weak in February [41]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook - International LNG Market: In the short - term, supply disruptions and strong demand support prices, but further upside is limited. Long - term supply will increase, and prices will decline after winter. In February, it maintains the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with Europe stronger than Asia [53]. - US Market: Short - term price spikes are due to cold snaps. After the cold snap, supply and demand will ease. Prices are temperature - dependent. In the second quarter, the market situation depends on post - winter inventory levels [54].