燃料油1月报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental weakness of fuel oil persists, with geopolitical factors remaining the main bullish drivers [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking has risen to a high level for the same period, but the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant, and there is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction and Overview 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil prices followed the increase in crude oil costs in early January. The high - sulfur cracking remained at a low level of - 10 to - 7 US dollars per barrel on a month - on - month basis and a medium level on a year - on - year basis, reflecting the weak seasonal fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter. In late January, due to the intensification of the Iranian geopolitical situation and Russian sanctions, the bullish sentiment in the market increased. - Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuated with crude oil costs in January. Its supply increased while demand had no drivers. After the return of Al - Zour's production capacity, low - sulfur production and exports reached a historical high. The low - sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery also increased, and the low - sulfur inventory in Singapore accumulated. The cracking remained at 3 to 5 US dollars per barrel, oscillating at an extremely low level year - on - year; the premium increased by about 2 US dollars per ton month - on - month but was still at the lowest level for the same period [5][11]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is supported by the increase in market demand and geopolitical supply concerns and has risen to a high level for the same period. However, the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant. There is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. - Options: None [7][57]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Supply - Due to the continuous Russia - Ukraine conflict and tariff expectations, there is still bullish sentiment in the short - term supply. In the first two weeks of January, the crude oil processing volume decreased month - on - month and was at a medium level year - on - year. - Some refineries were shut down due to attacks, and some refineries resumed operations. The sanctions from Europe and the United States continued, and concerns about fuel oil retention in the market persisted. - In terms of logistics monitoring, the high - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of January 22 increased by 110,000 tons month - on - month. The expected inflow of fuel oil in Singapore in January remained at a high level. - Mexico's near - term high - sulfur exports decreased and are expected to remain at a low level in February. - The Iranian situation is turbulent, and concerns about high - sulfur fuel oil supply have increased. The exports of high - sulfur fuel oil in Iran rebounded in the week of January 22 [16][17][21][26]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Demand - The demand for high - sulfur marine fuel is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers. - After the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects that Chinese local refineries may import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes, but the support from feedstock is not strong due to the abundant crude oil quotas at the beginning of the year and the general economic efficiency of high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock [31][36]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The return of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery was postponed, and the low - sulfur supply remained at a high level. - The low - sulfur supply and exports of the Middle East Al - Zour refinery returned to a high level. - The energy supply in South Sudan is gradually recovering. - In the Pan - Singapore region, the new and restarted production capacities of refineries have been implemented and returned. - The low - sulfur demand has no specific drivers, the marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy of low - sulfur fuel oil is still inferior to that of natural gas under the background of cold snaps in Europe and the United States, with no strong substitution demand [41][42][43][46][47]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur spot premiums continue to rise, and the on - land inventory in Singapore decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Short - term fuel oil exports and production are expected to be continuously disturbed by geopolitical and macro - strategic factors, and the unilateral fluctuations of fuel oil will intensify. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers. - The near - term low - sulfur supply and exports have increased significantly. - Strategy recommendations: Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. Options: None [56][57].