苹果月报-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 5 - month apple futures contract has a strong fundamental situation, and its price center is expected to continue to rise. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices. The 10 - month contract is for the new fruit season, with an expected increase in production, so it is recommended to build short positions at high prices after it rises following the 5 - month contract. Also, it is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [5][6][34] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Preface Summary - Market Review: In January, the main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated slightly stronger, and the price center shifted from the previous range of 8,900 - 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,400 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The reasons were low apple storage volume this season, poor quality of cold - stored apples, and high cost of making apple warehouse receipts [4][9] - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the cold - storage apple inventory is low and of poor quality, being at the second - lowest level in recent years, with supply slightly tight. On the demand side, the Spring Festival is late this year, and the pre - festival stocking market has started, with current demand being acceptable. On the cost side, the cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, around 9,700 - 10,000 yuan/ton currently, and the cost of the 5 - month contract is likely to be higher [5][34] Part 2: Fundamental Situation - Market Review: In January, due to the late Spring Festival, the large - scale apple sales started late. In the first few weeks, the apple sales volume was lower year - on - year, and the spot price weakened slightly. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commodity was around 4.2 yuan/jin, 0.6 yuan/jin higher than last year. In Shandong, the trading price of Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods dropped slightly by 0.1 yuan/jin to around 4 yuan/jin, 0.25 yuan/jin higher than last year. The main - continuous price of apple futures in January fluctuated slightly stronger, and the price center shifted up [9] - Accelerated Cold - Storage De - stocking: The cold - storage inventory this year is at the second - lowest level in recent years. Due to slow sales in the early stage, the inventory reduction rate was slow, but recently, with pre - Spring Festival stocking, the sales volume increased, and the inventory reduction rate widened again. As of January 29, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from the previous week and 336,500 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.9%. Different regions had different inventory changes. It is expected that the cold - storage inventory will continue to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival and slow down after the Spring Festival, but the de - stocking rate will not be too low in March and April [10][13] - Pre - Spring Festival Stocking and Acceptable Apple Demand: In January, apple sales were average in the first two weeks and improved in the last two weeks with the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. The weekly sales volumes in the first four weeks were 126,600 tons, 162,500 tons, 218,800 tons, and 287,300 tons respectively. The sales volume is expected to remain high in the first two weeks of February and decline after the Spring Festival. The arrival volume at the three major wholesale markets in Guangzhou increased in the last two weeks of January, and it is expected to remain high before the Spring Festival and decline significantly after the Spring Festival [19] - Import and Export Situation: In December 2025, the domestic apple export volume increased significantly, with 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. The annual cumulative export volume in 2025 was about 962,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.94%. The export volume in January is expected to remain at a seasonal high but may decrease compared with December. In December 2025, the domestic apple import volume was at a seasonal low, with 31,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%. The import volume in January is expected to remain low [26] - Substitute Situation: In January, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits fluctuated slightly upward, starting at 7.92 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and reaching 7.96 yuan/kg currently, at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected to remain high before and after the Spring Festival, which will support the apple price. The average wholesale price of Ya pears decreased slightly in January, from 6.71 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 6.52 yuan/kg currently, at a slightly lower - than - medium level, and its supporting effect on apples is relatively limited. Overall, the impact of substitutes on apples is relatively limited [30] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Future Outlook: The 5 - month contract has a strong fundamental situation, and its price center is expected to continue to rise. If the apple demand remains strong in the next two months, the price center of the 5 - month contract will likely continue to rise; if the demand weakens, the market may be weak first and then rise after de - stocking. The 10 - month contract is for the new fruit season, with an expected increase in production [5][34] - Strategy Recommendations: For the 5 - month contract, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices; for the 10 - month contract, it is recommended to build short positions at high prices. It is also recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [6]