油脂2月报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market due to profit - taking near the holiday. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [3][5][68] - The Malaysian palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. The combined inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not very loose. [4][14][68] - There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, such as following the rise of palm oil and the positive outlook for US biodiesel, but there is no prominent core contradiction. The supply pressure may be postponed. [4][40][68] - Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short - term. The price has support below and is still affected by policy disturbances. [4][43][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the oil and fat market rebounded after reaching the bottom and fluctuated upward overall. Palm oil rose by about 7.8%, soybean oil by about 5.7%, and rapeseed oil by about 2.8% due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. The OI - Y 05 and OI - P 05 spreads continued to narrow. [3][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil may cut production and reduce inventory in January, but the inventory may remain high. There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider shorting lightly at high levels or waiting for a correction to go long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels. - Options: Stay on the sidelines. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in January, the oil and fat market fluctuated upward. Palm oil was pushed up by factors such as the market's view that the negative news was exhausted and Indonesia's plan to raise the Levy tax in March. The expectation of US biodiesel also boosted the market. Rapeseed oil was affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations. [10] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil in January May Cut Production and Reduce Inventory, and Indonesia Seizes Illegal Plantations - In December, Malaysian palm oil inventory unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons. In January, production is expected to decrease to about 1.57 million tons, and inventory may reduce to around 2.85 million tons but remain at a relatively high historical level. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly. Indonesia has seized illegal plantations, which may affect production in the short - term. The price of Indonesian palm oil is rising, and the export tax will be increased in March. [13][14][21] 3.2.3 India Has Soybean Oil Wash - Sales, and Palm Oil Imports May Increase - In December, India's edible oil imports decreased compared with the same period last year. The inventory of palm oil in ports decreased slightly, while that of soybean oil and sunflower oil increased. Currently, there is no import profit for the three major edible oils in India. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is rising, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging. It is expected that India will import about 680,000 tons of palm oil in January. [29][30] 3.2.4 Sino - Canadian Rapeseed Trade Disturbances Still Exist, and Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory Continues to Decline - Palm oil inventory is slightly decreasing, and the import profit is negative. It is expected to continue to decline slightly. Soybean oil inventory is also decreasing slightly, and there are potential positive factors. Rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and it is affected by policy. [39][40][43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Palm oil may need a correction and maintains a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and Y35 reverse arbitrage can be considered at high levels. Rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space and is affected by policy. [68]