白糖月报：印度糖产大增，北半球增产兑现-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the international market, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a historically high level. Although the increase in Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations, its output is still at a high level in the same period over the years. In the Northern Hemisphere, India's sugar production is currently at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase in this season's sugar production is likely to be higher than the previous market expectations. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than that of last year, and the final increase in sugar production may also fall short of expectations. The Chinese market is still in an increasing - production cycle. Overall, the Northern Hemisphere is still in the process of realizing the expected increase in production. For the 2026/27 season, the world sugar production will still be at a high level, but there are differences in the market regarding the increase or decrease compared with this season. In the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to mainly focus on the realization of the expected increase in production. Considering that the international sugar price is already low, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited, and it will probably fluctuate in the bottom range [4][12][88]. - In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term domestic sugar supply is large. The market demand before the Spring Festival is acceptable, but it is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. Therefore, there is no short - term upward driving force for white sugar. However, considering that the current sugar price is at a relatively low level over the years and lower than the production cost in most areas of Guangxi, and there is also strong support near the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar, the sugar price in February is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation, and the oscillation range is likely to be similar to that in January [4][88]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the international sugar price showed a fluctuating trend, with the fluctuation range around 14.5 - 15 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price also fluctuated, with the range between 5100 - 5300 yuan per ton. Recently, Brazil's sugar - crushing is coming to an end, its sugar export volume is decreasing, and its influence on the global sugar price is weakening. The market has begun to focus on the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Currently, the increase in India's sugar production may be higher than expected, while the increase in Thailand's sugar production may be lower than expected. Although the sugar price is at a low level, there is still resistance to the upside, so the international sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. In the domestic market, it is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing, with sufficient white - sugar supply and great market sales pressure. There is strong resistance to the upside of the white - sugar price, but the space is relatively limited due to the support from the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar [3][8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - International market: The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in surplus and at a high level. The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1630000 tons in the 2025/26 season, with an expected year - on - year increase of 3.15% in sugar production to 181.77 million tons and only a 0.6% increase in consumption to 180.14 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, there are differences in the market's expectations for the increase or decrease in global production. The Green Pool expects that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, but the surplus will decrease to 156000 tons [4][12][13]. - Domestic market: It is currently the peak period of sugar - mill crushing in China. The short - term sugar supply is large, and the demand is likely to decline after the Spring Festival. The sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February, with a range similar to that in January [4][88]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface, in January, the international and domestic sugar prices fluctuated, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere's production [3][8]. 3.2.2 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The global sugar production in the 25/26 season is increasing and at a high level. The ISO predicts a surplus of 1630000 tons. Brazil's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, but the increase may fall short of expectations. India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, and the increase may be higher than expected. Thailand's sugar production this season is lower than last year, and the increase may fall short of expectations. China's sugar production in Guangxi may increase, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the 2026/27 season's global sugar production [12][13]. 3.2.3 Brazil: Sugar Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations, and Export Volume Decreases Seasonally - Due to the increasing enthusiasm of Brazilian sugar mills to produce ethanol in the later stage of the crushing season, the increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season may fall short of expectations. As of the second half of December, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 341000 tons. The whole - Brazil sugar production in this season is expected to increase by only about 500000 tons year - on - year, lower than the previous market expectation of 1000000 tons. The ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio is decreasing seasonally. In December, Brazil's sugar export volume decreased. The sugar inventory is also decreasing seasonally, and the influence of Brazilian sugar on the market is weakening [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 India: New Season's Production Increase May Exceed Expectations; Thailand: Sugar Production Decreases Slightly Year - on - Year - India: The ISMA expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting the amount for ethanol production). The demand is expected to be about 28.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400000 tons. As of January 15, the cumulative sugar production in India has reached 15.885 million tons, 8.8% higher than the average of the past five years. The number of operating sugar mills has increased. The 2 - month sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50000 tons compared with January. In October, the net export volume of Indian sugar was 186200 tons. In the 26/27 season, the probability of the El Nino climate forming in summer increases, which may affect India's sugar production [40][41][43]. - Thailand: The market expects Thailand's sugar production to reach 11 million tons in the 25/26 season, and the export volume is expected to increase by about 1 million tons. However, as of January 15, the cumulative sugar production was 2.5835 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. The cumulative sugar - production rate is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Although the sugar production is likely to increase this season, the increase will be lower than expected. As of November 2025, the cumulative sugar export volume was 5.385 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%, but still at a relatively low level compared with previous years [44]. 3.2.5 Guangxi: Centralized Crushing Time Is Slightly Postponed; Yunnan: High Sugar Production - In this sugar - making season, Guangxi's crushing progress is behind, so both sugar production and inventory are low. Yunnan's crushing progress is slightly ahead, and there is a large amount of foreign - sourced sugarcane entering the market, so the sugar production and inventory are high. In January, the crushing progress in both regions is expected to accelerate, and the production and sales data are expected to be optimistic. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 809500 tons. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar production was 392300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65400 tons. The third - party inventory in Guangxi in January was about 745200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 667400 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 224200 tons [56][58][59]. 3.2.6 December: High Import Volume; January: Expected Import Volume Decrease - In December 2025, China imported 580000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562200 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - import volume was 1.7635 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 301700 tons. The sugar - import volume in January is expected to decrease seasonally [75]. 3.2.7 December: Decrease in Imported Syrup and Premixed Powder - In December 2025, China imported a total of 69700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120800 tons. In 2025, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons. As of the end of December in the 25/26 season, the total import volume was 299600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 339500 tons. The decrease is mainly due to the expansion of the scope and number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder are suspended by the customs [84][85]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the content in the preface, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation in February [4][88]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Domestic white sugar is also likely to remain in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term traders can consider buying at the low end and selling at the high end within the range [6][89]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell put options at low levels [6].