锡2月报-20260130

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term supply is expected to be loose, increasing the risk of high - level pressure on tin prices [4] - In February 2026, the Shanghai tin market is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. High inventory is a potential risk, and any falsification of demand expectations or alleviation of supply concerns may trigger a rapid correction [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of Shanghai tin started low and went high. It started from 326,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, accelerated after the landslide in the Congo - Kinshasa mining area on January 13th, reached a record high of 469,800 yuan/ton on the night session of January 29th, and ended the month oscillating around 432,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of over 35%. LME tin also reached a new high of $59,000/ton on January 29th [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The Shanghai tin market in February is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The sharp price increase is driven by the resonance of capital sentiment, industrial theme narratives, and macro - liquidity expectations. High inventory is a risk factor [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish in the short term. The supply resumption rhythm is advancing, and the long - term demand as a "computing power metal" provides support. Be vigilant against rapid corrections caused by changes in the macro - environment. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, tin prices have shown a rapid upward trend with a maximum amplitude of 68.7%. The price increase in 2025 was mainly due to supply - side speculations in Myanmar, Congo (Kinshasa), and Indonesia. In January 2026, the tin market had a pattern of "partial supply release, weak demand recovery, and seasonal inventory accumulation". Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, and overall consumption showed weak recovery [11] 3.2.2 Tight Supply at the Mine End - After the significant increase in tin ore imports from Myanmar in November, there are two interpretations of the increment. The second possibility (mine restoration and resumption) is more likely according to December data. In 2025, the cumulative imported tin ore metal from Myanmar decreased by 37.79% year - on - year, accounting for 18.62% of the total imports. In January, the import volume is expected to remain stable. Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining intensified supply concerns, but the sharp decline in exports in October was due to temporary license issues, which have been resolved. Indonesia is expected to increase its tin mining production quota by 13.2% in 2026. Congo (Kinshasa) has geopolitical risks [16][18] 3.2.3 Slight Decline in December Output, and Stable but Lacking Upward Momentum in January - In December 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.06% month - on - month, with an annual output of 178,700 tons, a 2.81% year - on - year decrease. In December, tin imports increased by 29.54% month - on - month but decreased by 48.24% year - on - year. Exports increased by 41.84% month - on - month and 32.58% year - on - year [23] 3.2.4 Terminal Consumption - Overall, tin consumption is at the bottom - building stage with weak consumption. - Consumer Electronics: Semiconductor sales showed a good growth trend. In 2025, the global semiconductor sales from January to November increased by 22.07% year - on - year. The global smartphone shipments increased by 1.75% in 2025, and China's mobile phone shipments from January to November increased by 1.30%. China's integrated circuit output increased by 9.73% in 2025 [30][33] - Photovoltaic: After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, orders declined rapidly. In 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 14.22% year - on - year, but the single - month installed capacity in December decreased by 40.54% year - on - year. The cumulative output of photovoltaic modules from January to December decreased by 1.21% year - on - year [39][41] - Tin Chemicals: Tin chemicals mainly refer to PVC stabilizers, whose demand is closely related to real estate completion. In 2025, the real estate completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, and the long - term consumption of tin chemicals may be affected [43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In February, tin prices are expected to continue the high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The price may be affected by factors such as the follow - up impact of the Congo - Kinshasa landslide, long - term demand in emerging fields, high inventory pressure, and supply resumption. The core operating range may be between 400,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include Myanmar's resumption progress, domestic smelter operations, electronic orders, emerging consumption, and inventory de - stocking speed [50]