银河期货多晶硅2月报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of polysilicon futures in February is expected to be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton. The main reasons are the high inventory of polysilicon, the pressure on terminal demand caused by the increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals, and the cancellation of joint production cuts, sales restrictions, and price increases under the anti - involution policy [5][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - Supply and Demand Outlook: The significant increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals has pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 87,400 tons. The output of polysilicon in February is expected to be about 82,000 tons, and although there is a slight inventory reduction, the high inventory of over 330,000 tons still exerts pressure on the spot price [4][40]. - Trading Logic: After the座谈会 on January 28, the anti - involution policy will focus more on the market and legal aspects. The optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers may be to refer to their full costs. The annual operating rate of enterprises is expected to be around 30% - 50%, with a corresponding industry cost range of (42,000, 50,000) yuan/ton. The spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - Strategy Recommendation: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage, recommend positive arbitrage; for options, no recommendation is provided [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation - Market Review: In January, the polysilicon futures price dropped significantly after being affected by the anti - monopoly risk reminder and the anti - involution policy, and then stabilized with a weakening trend at the end of the month. The main contract once fell to around 48,000 yuan/ton and then to the 49,000 yuan/ton level [9]. - Demand: The increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals has significantly pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of batteries and components in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, may lead to a rush to export in the first quarter, but the sharp increase in costs has eroded the preferential price space [14][18]. - Supply: The production schedule of polysilicon in February is expected to be reduced. The total domestic output in February is estimated to be 81,600 tons, with only Tongwei Co., Ltd. having a reduced output compared to January [34]. - Inventory: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged. In January, the inventory increased on paper, and as of January 23, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reached 330,000 - 340,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises decreased to about 150,000 tons. The inventory of the delivery warehouse increased to 24,200 tons. The possible restocking by downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival and the increased willingness to sell by upstream enterprises due to inventory pressure will be negative for the spot price [36]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Fundamental Outlook: The cost of batteries and components has increased significantly, the production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable, the output of polysilicon in February is about 82,000 tons, and the high - inventory pressure still exists, putting pressure on the spot price [40]. - Trading Logic Analysis: The anti - involution policy focuses on the market and legal aspects, the optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers is to refer to full costs, the annual operating rate of enterprises is around 30% - 50%, the spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - Operation Strategy: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage and options, no recommendations are provided [41].