点心债系列报告：点心债：结构分化下的机会挖掘

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of the current inverted Sino-US interest rate spread and the continuous increase in the attractiveness of RMB assets, the supply of dim sum bonds is expected to maintain growth in 2026, but the differentiation of the internal supply structure may continue [1][39] - The issuance of urban investment dim sum bonds in 2026 may continue the pattern of "stable and slightly decreasing total volume and continuous differentiation in quality", and high - quality urban investment platforms may maintain a stable supply [1][39] - High - quality industrial entities may become the core growth source of the dim sum bond market in 2026 [1][40] - Innovative varieties of dim sum bonds are expected to increase in volume, and attention should be paid to the income mining opportunities in the initial stage of expansion [1][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Dim Sum Bond Market: Ample Liquidity, Policy Support, and Enhanced Attractiveness of RMB Assets - In 2025, the offshore RMB market had ample liquidity. The global liquidity environment showed overall looseness under policy differentiation. The 3M CNH HIBOR was at a historically low level, the 1Y CNH - CNY swap spread approached zero, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority取消 the 25BP additional premium for offshore RMB, and the offshore RMB deposit scale continued to expand [7][9] - The central bank introduced a series of policies to support overseas financing, including raising the cross - border financing macro - prudential adjustment parameters, issuing offshore central bank bills, and launching a pilot green foreign debt business [13][15] - The inverted Sino - US interest rate spread eased, and the exchange rate environment improved, potentially boosting the investment attractiveness of overseas RMB assets. The RMB exchange rate showed a trend of "first weak then strong and narrowing fluctuations" [16] 2. Structural Distribution and Opportunity Mining of Existing Dim Sum Bonds - As of December 24, 2025, the total scale of dim sum bonds was 14,436.81 billion yuan. Financial dim sum bonds were the main component, with a scale of 5628 billion yuan, accounting for 40%. The scale and proportion of urban investment dim sum bonds decreased, while the scale of industrial dim sum bonds significantly expanded [20] - Different types of dim sum bonds had obvious yield differentiation. Urban investment and industrial dim sum bonds had a coupon yield of over 3%, while the weighted average yield - to - call of non - bank financial bonds was 2.29%, and that of other types of dim sum bonds was less than 2%. After considering cross - border investment costs, they were less cost - effective than domestic bonds [24] - For urban investment dim sum bonds, the top five provinces in terms of existing scale were Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hubei, with a total scale of 1598 billion yuan. The existing scale of 1 - 3Y AA + urban investment bonds was 933 billion yuan, and the yield - to - call of 1 - 3Y AA + urban investment entities in Shandong and Hubei was over 5% [26] - The yield of industrial dim sum bonds showed a pattern of "low for leading enterprises and high for small and medium - sized enterprises". The yield of bonds issued by leading technology enterprises was relatively limited, while that of high - quality private enterprises and small and medium - sized private enterprises in new energy and high - end manufacturing was mostly higher than the average. The average yield - to - call of AAA entities in the top five industries was less than 3.3%, and it was advisable to moderately lower the credit rating to AA + to mine coupon income [31][32] 3. Outlook for the Dim Sum Bond Market in 2026 - Urban investment dim sum bonds: The issuance in 2026 may continue the pattern of "stable and slightly decreasing total volume and continuous differentiation in quality". High - quality urban investment platforms in economically developed areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong may increase the issuance scale, while weak - quality platforms may continue to withdraw from the offshore RMB bond market [39] - Industrial dim sum bonds: High - quality industrial entities may become the core growth source of the dim sum bond market in 2026, driven by the cost advantage of offshore RMB bond financing and policy support [40] - Innovative varieties of dim sum bonds: Green dim sum bonds are expected to achieve a double breakthrough in scale and variety in 2026, and innovative varieties such as sustainable development - linked bonds and blue bonds are expected to further expand [41]