产业矛盾累积，锰硅低位震荡：2026年2月锰硅月报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon manganese oscillated and declined under the dominance of industrial logic. Although the prices once rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the increase in the cost side, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese did not improve substantially, leading to the price decline again. - As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, but it did not relieve the inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises. The inventory remained high, mainly concentrated in the main production areas, which may suppress the futures price. - The high inventory in the ferrosilicon manganese market, the narrowing of enterprise losses, and the continuous release of new production capacity mean that the supply pressure has not subsided, which will significantly inhibit the upward movement of ferrosilicon manganese prices. - At the beginning of the new year, steel mill production stabilized. The increased production enthusiasm of construction steel mills brought marginal improvement in ferrosilicon manganese demand. However, the limited improvement in steel mill profitability and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market led to weak production enthusiasm, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese continued to operate weakly and stably. - Looking ahead, the operating logic of the ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Ferrosilicon Manganese Oscillated and Declined in January - At the beginning of the new year, the market operating logic returned to the industrial side, and the ferrosilicon manganese price was under pressure again and fell back, giving up most of the previous gains. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by the warm sentiment in the commodity market and the significant increase in upstream costs. However, the supply - demand pattern did not improve substantially, with high enterprise inventory and slow destocking. - As of January 28, the futures price of the main ferrosilicon manganese contract closed at 5,832 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase to 6,074 yuan/ton during the period, a 1.49% decline from the end - of - last - month value. The spot price showed a similar trend, with a smaller fluctuation range than the futures price. The latest tender price of mainstream steel mills in January increased slightly [8]. 2. Ferrosilicon Manganese Inventory Remained High - As of January 23, the total inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 373,000 tons, a slight decrease of 13,000 tons from the end - of - last - month value, still at an absolute high level, 148% higher than the same period last year. - The inventory in different regions increased or decreased in January. The inventory in the main production area of Ningxia continued to rise, reaching a new high, with a year - on - year increase of 305%. There is a risk of the inventory being converted into exchange warehouse receipts. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills replenished their stocks as expected, and the inventory available days increased significantly. However, it did not effectively reduce the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises, indicating obvious industrial contradictions. - As of January 27, the exchange warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon manganese increased. If the price difference is appropriate, enterprises may actively hedge on the futures market, which may put pressure on the futures price [18][26][29]. 3. Limited Supply Contraction of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In December, the production of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was weak and stable, with little change in output. In 2025, the cumulative output of domestic ferrosilicon manganese was 10.1264 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22%. The monthly output reached a maximum of 915,700 tons in October. - The production enterprise's operating rate decreased significantly in 2025, but the output did not decrease significantly due to the release of new production capacity. In 2026, the to - be - put - into - production capacity of ferrosilicon manganese is as high as 3.0865 million tons. - As of January 23, the operating rate and daily output of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises rebounded, with a narrowing decline compared to the end - of - last - month value. The daily output was slightly lower than last year. - The previous rise in ferrosilicon manganese prices was driven by cost increases, mainly due to the rise in manganese ore prices. However, the cost support effect needs to be tracked, as the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore has not improved substantially, and the sustainability of cost increases is questionable [31][34][37]. 4. Weak and Stable Demand for Ferrosilicon Manganese - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for ferrosilicon manganese has improved marginally. The production of short - process steel mills has been active, driving an increase in domestic steel output. - The improvement in downstream steel production has led to an increase in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese converted from five major steel products has increased to 116,900 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year, but still at a low level. - There are concerns about the future growth space of ferrosilicon manganese demand. The profitability of steel mills has limited recovery, and the steel market is in the traditional off - season, with accumulating supply - demand contradictions. The demand is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably [56]. 5. Outlook for the Future - The ferrosilicon manganese market will switch between industrial logic and optimistic sentiment. During the Spring Festival, industrial contradictions are difficult to ease, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes of manganese ore [64].