有色日报：有色高位回落-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to decline. As of today's close, Shanghai copper dropped by over RMB 10,000/ton from its high. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened significantly, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have declined notably. The willingness of previous long - position holders to close their positions has increased significantly. The spread between February and March contracts has weakened as copper prices fell, reflecting that the industry is not short of spot and near - month electrolytic copper. Technically, the futures price has fallen back to the trading range since January, and the pressure at the upper edge of the range can be continuously monitored [6]. - Aluminum: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum once rose to the RMB 26,000 mark and has since fallen back to around RMB 24,600 as of today's close. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened, non - ferrous metals have generally declined, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions is relatively strong. The spread between February and March contracts has rebounded significantly. As aluminum prices fall, the industry's willingness to replenish inventories may increase [7]. - Nickel: Last night, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once rose to the RMB 150,000 mark and closed at the RMB 140,000 mark today. At the macro level, the short - term market has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has generally declined. Nickel prices have followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged, and short - term driving forces are weak. Technically, the support level at the RMB 140,000 mark should be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: This week, the raw material and finished product inventories of domestic refined copper rods have generally run smoothly. Raw material procurement and stocking have been advancing in an orderly manner, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The finished product inventory has increased due to the slowdown in downstream pick - up rhythm and the pre - holiday stocking operations of enterprises. On January 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 335,800 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from January 26 [10][11]. - Aluminum: On January 30, China Aluminum (02600.HK) announced that on the same day, the company, Rio Tinto, and Valoriza Alumínio jointly entered into a share purchase agreement. According to the agreement, the company and Rio Tinto will acquire 446,606,615 common shares of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) held by Valoriza Alumínio through a joint - venture company in cash. These shares account for 68.596% of the total issued shares of CBA, and the acquisition price is approximately 4.689 billion Brazilian reals, equivalent to approximately RMB 6.286 billion [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and the relationship between the spread of Shanghai copper contracts and the main contract price [13][15][16]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum spread between contracts, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: The report provides charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].