煤焦日报：基本面利好不足，煤焦低位整理-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Coke: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 227,980 tons, a slight weekly decrease of 120 tons. This week, independent coking plants had a slight inventory build - up, ports had inventory draw - down, and steel mills had a significant inventory build - up, indicating that the winter storage and replenishment demand of steel mills is accelerating. Overall, the coke fundamentals have little change, and the raw material coking coal has no continuous support. Coke futures are expected to remain in a low - level range [6][32]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending January 30, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77,100 tons, a slight weekly increase of 100 tons. From January 20th to 28th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port was 9,728, and the Mongolian coal import volume remained at a high level. The combined daily coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. There are three potential positive factors: winter storage by downstream enterprises, possible early shutdown of coal mines due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the strengthening of energy - related commodities driven by geopolitical premiums in the Middle East. However, due to the lack of domestic policy support and strong coking coal fundamentals, coking coal futures lack the momentum for continuous upward movement and are expected to remain range - bound [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Transportation Investment: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment is 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeds 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment is 120 billion yuan [8]. - Shanxi's Key Projects: In 2026, Shanxi launched 629 provincial key projects with a total investment of over 2.4 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 282.93 billion yuan. These projects cover five major fields such as energy transformation and industrial upgrading. There are 309 energy - transformation projects with a planned investment of 109.04 billion yuan, and projects with an investment of over 500 million yuan account for more than 60%. There are also 41 private investment projects with a financing demand of about 16.5 billion yuan [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [11] 3.3 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: The report provides charts of 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: There are charts of mine - mouth coking coal inventory, full - sample independent coking plants' coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory over the years [18][29][21][23]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [24][27][30]