利率债周报：债市延续偏强震荡-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of interest rate bonds oscillating within a range remains unchanged. In the quarterly dimension, inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the oscillation; in the weekly dimension, it is expected to have narrow - amplitude fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the trend of the capital market, and focus on varieties around 3Y and the opportunity for the narrowing of the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Price - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the central bank's net investment in the open - market exceeded 90 billion yuan. The MLF operation scale reached 90 billion yuan, with an over - quota renewal of 70 billion yuan. The total net investment of 3M and 6M repurchase with ownership transfer this month was 30 billion yuan. The funds price showed differentiation, with DR001 falling below 1.4%, DR007 rising to 1.59%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically flat [9]. 3.2 Primary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, 87 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 744.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds continued to increase. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance term of local bonds has generally been extended, which may be a long - term feature throughout 2026, aiming to take advantage of the low - interest - rate window period and relieve the repayment pressure in recent years [11]. 3.3 Secondary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the bond market continued the previous strong - biased oscillation trend. In terms of the term structure, the yield of Treasury bonds around 5Y declined the most; the 1Y Treasury bonds were relatively weak, mainly affected by the overall increase in the funds price since the beginning of the year; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds recovered. There were few substantial positive events in the bond market during the statistical period. Three pieces of information on the news were positive: the winning bid rate of MLF in January might decline; the market expected the central bank to launch a new overnight monetary policy tool; the market expected the central bank to significantly increase bond purchases in January [13]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is little fundamental data information at the beginning of the year, mainly focusing on the January PMI data and inflation data. If the January PMI month - on - month data improves again, the upper limit of the interest rate oscillation range needs to be further adjusted upward. - In terms of funds, the central bank has released trillions of funds through repurchase with ownership transfer and MLF. It is expected that the repurchase with ownership transfer in February will continue to be renewed in an over - quota manner, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival will decrease accordingly. The funds price may continue to rise slightly at the beginning of February [18].