国信期货生猪周报：需求不及预期，生猪期现同跌-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, both live hog spot and futures prices declined. The national average spot price dropped by 0.67 yuan to 12.21 yuan/kg, with the southern region being particularly weak. The main futures contract LH2603 fell 2.98% to 11,220 yuan/ton, and the commodity curve's positive structure steepened. The near - end reflects post - holiday off - season pressure, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction and relatively resistant to decline [7]. - Based on previous piglet birth data and hog feed production and sales, the theoretical standard hog slaughter volume in China will remain high until the second quarter. The de - capacity speed of breeding sows in the fourth quarter of last year did not meet the policy control target, and attention should be paid to whether new policy guidance will be introduced [7]. - In the short term, the peak - season demand before the Spring Festival started slowly, and the inventory of live hogs from secondary fattening and pressure - barring was high. As the peak - season window before the Spring Festival shortens, large - weight hogs may be difficult to clear, which means there will still be some digestion pressure after the Spring Festival, which is unfavorable for near - end contracts. After continuous declines, the far - end contracts' valuation has reached an appropriate level, and the further downside space may be limited. The near - end should be treated as oscillating weakly, and long - term buying on dips is recommended for the far - end [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - Live hog spot prices fell last week, and futures also declined. The near - end contracts are under pressure due to post - holiday off - season and inventory issues, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction. The theoretical hog slaughter volume will be high in the second quarter, and the de - capacity of breeding sows did not meet the target. Near - end contracts should be treated as oscillating weakly, and far - end contracts can be bought on dips [7]. 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not initiated when a level - three early warning is issued, may be initiated at the discretion when a level - two early warning is issued, and are initiated when a level - one early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are initiated when a level - two early warning is issued and the release intensity is increased when a level - one early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and releases are mainly organized during key periods after a level - one early warning is issued. Provinces can determine their own reserve release initiation conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release initiation conditions [65].