郑棉宏观属性增强，波动加大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].