下游补库力度继续，盘面偏强：焦煤日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is currently showing a strong trend. With the approaching Spring Festival, domestic mines are gradually on holiday, and the inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate. The downstream winter - storage replenishment process has accelerated, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented, with the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products improving and the profit of coking enterprises rising. Some countries have listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral, causing significant fluctuations in market sentiment. The coking coal market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and moved higher during the day, showing an upward trend. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 89.13%, a 0.2% decrease from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reached 1.9782 million tons. The inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate, with a week - on - week decrease of 71,700 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills have increased their inventories, and the winter - storage replenishment process has accelerated compared to last week. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.12% week - on - week, with a daily average output of 227,980 tons. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products has improved. The profit of coking enterprises has rebounded. The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly. The market is strongly volatile in the short term [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1,155.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 144.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From January 24th to January 30th, the coking coal production rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 89.13%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period. The daily output of refined coking coal was 77,070 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons from the previous period [5]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 62,840 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47,010 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 227,980 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous period [6].