白糖周报：偏强震荡，郑糖下方支撑确认-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market showed a relatively strong upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 1.31%. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. The international sugar market is in a weak and volatile state, with the lower support level at around 14 cents per pound. The recommended trading strategy is short - term trading [9][56][57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend, with a weekly increase of 1.31%. ICE sugar futures were in a low - level volatile state, with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the provided text 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - In January, although the spot sugar trading in Guangxi was mostly moderate and there were few trading volume spikes, the estimated sales volume for the month was 70 - 80 tons, close to the level of the same period last year. Yunnan's sales volume was better than that of Guangxi and is expected to increase year - on - year [56] 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In December, the sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil were 4,019 yuan/ton and 5,090 yuan/ton respectively; those from Thailand were 4,078 yuan/ton and 5,166 yuan/ton respectively [21] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in December was approximately 2.11 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25] 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 14,208, an increase of 402 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 14,119, and the number of effective forecasts was 89 [33] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of December, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the sugar production was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [37] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 50.82%, compared to 48.16% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In December, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.913 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [44] 3.1.10 International Main Production Area Weather Conditions - There was abundant rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. There was little precipitation in India, which was beneficial for sugarcane pressing [52] 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou sugar showed a relatively strong performance this week. Despite two cold snaps in Guangxi in January, the sugarcane crushing progress was smooth. The extended Chinese New Year stocking period is expected to result in a sales volume of 70 - 80 tons in January, close to last year's level. Yunnan's sales are better than Guangxi's. The market has confirmed the lower support level, and short - term volatility is expected to continue [56] - International Market: The international sugar market is in a weak and volatile state. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has accelerated, but the largest sugar - producing state may end the season early due to insufficient sugarcane, and the actual export may only be 800,000 tons. Thailand's sugar production has decreased significantly year - on - year due to white leaf disease and delayed crushing, and the disease may further reduce production. The lower support level of the international sugar market is around 14 cents per pound [56]