金信期货观点-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices rose significantly this week, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced US crude oil production, decreased US crude oil inventories, and a falling dollar index. However, the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and the rebound height of oil prices may be limited without clear production cut signals or significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4]. - The overall valuation of the chemical sector has increased due to rising crude oil prices. PX supply is expected to ease, and PTA may face inventory accumulation in February. PTA prices are expected to oscillate at a high level following the cost side [4]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated, but the medium - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets have strengthened, but their supply - demand has turned loose, with limited upward momentum and a risk of correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, Brent crude oil reached $70/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about potential supply disruptions, along with reduced US production and inventory, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices [4]. - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increase from January to March 2026, but the long - term increase trend remains. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day of production growth in 2026 [4]. PX & PTA - PX load remained unchanged, with processing fees stable at around $350/ton. Supply is expected to be looser in the future, and attention should be paid to terminal restocking [4]. - PTA plant inventory decreased slightly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level with the cost side [4]. - As of Friday, the PTA spot market price was 5,290 yuan/ton, up 241 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.83%, unchanged from last week. Factory inventory days decreased by 0.04 days to 3.58 days [16]. - PTA processing fees were 416 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from last week. The price increase was mainly due to the strong support of PX prices [16]. MEG - Domestic ethylene glycol synthesis gas plants are undergoing spring maintenance, and the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors has boosted its valuation, reducing supply pressure [5]. - Port inventory reached 812,000 tons, but imports are expected to decline in February due to overseas plant shutdowns. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - As of Friday, the ethylene glycol price in East China was 3,814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.50%, up 0.44% month - on - month [25]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene market has strengthened, but the supply - demand has turned loose, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, down 0.35% month - on - month. Both factory and port inventories have increased, but the inventory pressure has been alleviated [38]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 81.81%, down 1.81 percentage points from last week. The production and capacity utilization rate declined significantly due to pre - holiday plant maintenance [30]. - The开工 rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises was 42.41%, down 8.79% from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 6.70 days, down 0.85 days from last week, and the average finished - product inventory level was 28.79 days, up 0.48 days from last week [30].