有色金属日报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated [1] - Zinc: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly stated [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated [1] - Polysilicon: One star, indicating a bearish bias but low operability on the market [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals is affected by various factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced positions and fell to the MA20 moving average. The SMM spot copper price was 104,410 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 150 yuan. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 322,800 tons. It is necessary to follow the volume - price relationship and observe the moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan dropping to - 210 yuan, - 390 yuan, and - 250 yuan respectively. The aluminum rod processing fee was around - 100 yuan. Due to geopolitical uncertainties, the market was driven by short - term sentiment, deviating from fundamentals. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained high, and the balance was in significant surplus. When the basis weakens, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3] Zinc - Bulls reduced positions at high prices, and Shanghai zinc fell from a high level. In 2026, the zinc fundamentals continued to have oversupply. After the price soared due to structural mismatch, there was a high probability of the market forming a top through oscillation. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Selling deep out - of - the - money call options has a relatively high winning rate [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel tumbled from a high level, and the market trading was active. After the stainless - steel spot price soared, the downstream was cautious in purchasing. Although the steel mill inventory was at a low level, the traders were reluctant to lower prices, supporting the strong operation of the spot market. It is recommended to be cautious due to the market's fear of high prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions to below 100,000 lots and fell to the MA20 moving average at the 410,000 - yuan level. The spot tin price was adjusted to 428,650 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,650 yuan to the delivery month. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options of the 2603 contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down. Affected by exchange policies, the market participation decreased. The high - priced lithium carbonate might have led to a large number of hedging positions being closed. The market was mainly dominated by strong spot and bullish speculative positions, with a fragile holding structure. The overall market inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the futures price was in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon oscillated and closed down. It rose to above 9,000 yuan/ton during the day due to the news of a large factory's production cut but then gave back the gains. If the Xinjiang large factory's monthly production cut of 50% is implemented, it may affect the supply by about 60,000 tons in February. The downstream polysilicon is expected to continue to reduce production. Under the supply - demand pattern, industrial silicon is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in February. If the actual production cut of the large factory is implemented, the short - term market may test the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark, but the price increase space is limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon was dragged down by the decline of precious metals and its weak fundamentals, with the price falling below the previous low of 48,000 yuan/ton and closing at 47,140 yuan/ton. Although leading polysilicon enterprises have reduced production, the downstream demand improvement is limited. The market trading is light, and the industry sentiment is weak. If the commodity market recovers after a general decline, polysilicon may rebound slightly, but the actual transaction center of gravity continues to move down, and the market price is still expected to decline, with the lower support at 45,000 yuan/ton [11]