国投期货软商品日报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]