国投期货黑色金属日报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has weak domestic demand but high exports, with the market sentiment turning weak and the disk fluctuating. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to fluctuate within a range. The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by over - supply and policy concerns [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Catalog Steel - The steel disk rose and then fell sharply. Thread demand declined, production was stable, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Steel mill profits were poor, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. The iron - water production stabilized. Domestic demand was weak, and exports were high. The market sentiment was weak, and the disk fluctuated [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated. Global shipments decreased seasonally but were still strong year - on - year. Port inventory in China continued to accumulate.成材表需 remained low, and iron - water had no obvious recovery momentum. Steel mill import ore inventory increased, and winter - storage demand was released. The market is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - Coke prices回调. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, and coke production decreased slightly. Inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing willingness may improve. Carbon supply was abundant, downstream iron - water was at a low level, and steel profits were average, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke disk was at a premium, and prices were likely to fluctuate within a range [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices回调. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1395 vehicles. Coking coal production increased slightly, and terminal inventory increased significantly. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Carbon supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and steel profits were average. The coking coal disk was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices were likely to fluctuate within a range [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices回调. South32's quotes for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps increased. Manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. Iron - water production was at a seasonal low. Silicon manganese production changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices were affected by over - supply and policy concerns [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices回调. Some areas' power costs decreased, but semi - coke prices increased. Iron - water production was at a low level. Export demand was over 30,000 tons. Metal magnesium production increased, and overall demand was resilient. Supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices were affected by over - supply and policy concerns [7]