南华原木产业周报：估值有上修的驱动-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of the log industry has an upward - driving force. The inventory of logs in China has reached a new low, and the daily average outbound volume has remained at a high level. The spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong regions have increased, and the downstream wood - square prices have also risen, which may lead to an increase in the cost of the lowest warehouse receipts in Shandong. However, in the long - term, there are no conditions for a significant unilateral upward movement, and the supply - demand structure contradiction is not prominent [1][2]. - The short - term trading logic is based on low inventory, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta, and the impact on New Zealand's log shipments, making it difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The long - term trading expectation is that the overall supply - demand structure is relatively stable, and the profit - making effect will adjust the inventory difference between regions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 23, the national log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters (- 80,000), reaching a new low. The daily average outbound volume was 68,600 cubic meters (+ 2,000), remaining at a high level. In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood in Lanshan area increased to 1,100 yuan per cubic meter (+ 20). The price increase of downstream wood squares may drive up the spot price of radiata pine in Lanshan and the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. In the Yangtze River Delta, the prices continued to rise last week. From January 22 - 28, the number of log - shipping vessels from New Zealand decreased by 2. The external - market quotation remained at 112 US dollars [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market broke through the range and rose, but the trading volume was low, and the liquidity had not recovered. On Friday, it opened high and went high, breaking through the upper limit of the sideways - oscillation range and reaching a new high in nearly two months [8]. - Basis, Calendar - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. For the calendar - spread strategy, the 3 - 5 positive spread should be exited and observed, as the follow - up delivery - related policies may be adjusted [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Past strategies included selling lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800 (proposed on December 25, with lg2603 - C - 800 taking profit and the put position moving to 775 on January 29); doing a 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower limit of the 03 - 05 range (proposed on January 17 and taking profit on January 26); and conducting range operations between 750 - 795 (proposed on January 24 and revised to 775 - 810 on January 30) [12]. - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Spot Transaction Information: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis of different log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang on January 30, 2026 [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Factors affecting the market include low inventory, reduced Christmas - season shipments from New Zealand, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong, and rising prices of downstream wood squares in Lanshan. On the delivery side, the buyer's willingness to take delivery is low, and the seller's delivery cost is high. There are also changes in the delivery game in Chongqing, and Japanese cedar imports continue [17]. - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: After low - volatility oscillation this week, the market showed an upward trend on Thursday and Friday. The overall position remained low, around 10,000 lots, and the capital attention was not high [18]. - Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure: For the 3 - 5 calendar spread, it is recommended to exit and observe. In the short term, the 03 contract is stronger than the 05 contract, but the safety margin for further upward movement is insufficient [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta is around 810 yuan (+ 6), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, and in Shandong, it is around 800 yuan (+ 10), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyer's willingness to take delivery is around 760 yuan (+ 10) after a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [27]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously repaired. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta has significantly improved the recent profit [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From January 31 to February 9, it is expected that 9 vessels will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 168,000 cubic meters. As of January 23, the daily average outbound volume was 61,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 cubic meters. The demand exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease [33].