格林大华期货钢矿期货月报：2月钢矿供需双减，价格料震荡运行-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates that in February 2026, steel and iron ore will generally experience a volatile market. Steel products may be volatile and weak, while iron ore may be volatile and strong. Specifically, hot-rolled coils may outperform rebar. The main range for rebar is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils, between 3300 - 3450. The iron ore price will follow the rhythm of steel product profits and molten iron production, with the main range between 730 - 830 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - In January 2026, rebar prices were range-bound with limited fluctuations, failing to break above 3200 at the highest and reaching a low of 3085 [9]. - Compared to steel products, iron ore prices were more volatile, showing an inverted V-shaped trend during the month. The main iron ore contract reached a high of 831.5 and a low of 778.0 [12][13]. Part 2: Current Analysis 2.1 Macro Logic - In the long run, GDP is the "anchor" for steel prices. The quality and speed of economic growth determine the long - term central level of steel prices. In 2024, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, with positive fixed - asset investment, a narrowing decline in the real estate sector, and strong resilience in infrastructure and manufacturing. Steel prices showed an inverted V - shape, and GDP had a weak positive correlation with steel prices. In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.0%, just meeting the target. Fixed - asset investment growth turned negative, and the decline in the real estate sector widened. Economic growth relied more on consumption, high - end manufacturing, and exports (not the main steel - using sectors). The "basic support" of GDP for steel prices failed, and the steel price center directly shifted downward, showing a weak pattern [17]. 2.2 Supply - Demand Logic - Real Estate: Real estate is the core demand source for construction steel, accounting for over 60% of construction steel demand and 25% - 30% of the total national steel demand, but its proportion in total steel demand is decreasing. Since 2021, real estate investment and other indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle since then. In 2025, key indicators such as new construction area, construction area, and completion area were all weak, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction area at - 20.4%, construction area at - 10.0%, and completion area at - 18.1%. The land transaction area also decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, indicating continued weak demand for construction steel such as rebar [21][24]. - Infrastructure: In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached a record high, with about 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds (45% of the total local bond issuance of 10.29 trillion yuan) and about 3.09 trillion yuan in refinanced special bonds. Special bonds were front - loaded and accelerated in the fourth quarter. They were mainly invested in infrastructure, including urban, transportation, and industrial park projects, accounting for about 46%. In 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. In 2026, about 4.6 trillion yuan in new special bonds are expected, along with about 1.5 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. The early issuance and accelerated allocation of special bonds in the first quarter will provide financial support for demand recovery in March [27][31]. - Manufacturing: In 2025, national manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year, a significant decline from 2024. High - end manufacturing such as automobiles, new energy equipment, and ships had high - growth investment, driving demand for high - strength steel, electrical steel, and automotive sheets. In 2025, China's automobile production reached 30.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. In February 2026, production is expected to decline month - on - month due to the Spring Festival, but it will rebound in March [35]. - Shipbuilding and Machinery: In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 42.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%, with a global share of over 50%. New orders and year - end orders were at high levels. In 2025, the production of excavators, loaders, and other machinery increased. In February 2026, production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival, but it will recover in March [36]. - Home Appliances: In 2025, the overall production of home appliances increased moderately. In February 2026, the planned production of major home appliances decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. In March, production is expected to increase by 15% - 20% month - on - month [36]. - Steel Exports: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high of 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, while imports decreased by 11.1%. In February 2026, exports are expected to continue to decline and may turn negative year - on - year. Exports are expected to recover in March, but the rebound will be limited [39]. - Steel Production: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival, steel production decreased significantly. In March, production is expected to rebound significantly, but it will be restricted by various factors and may not exceed the same - period high in 2025 [40]. - Iron Ore Supply: In 2025, China imported 1.259 billion tons of iron ore, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In February 2026, iron ore demand decreased due to steel mill maintenance. In March, demand is expected to increase as steel mills resume production. Australian and Brazilian mines are in the traditional shipping peak season from February to March, and new mines such as Simandou will gradually increase supply in 2026. In 2025, China's iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, production decreased due to the Spring Festival, and it is expected to recover in March, but the production increase is limited [44][47]. 4. Operation Suggestions - Rebar: Mainly wait and see. Try to go long lightly at 3050 - 3100 and take profit above 3200; try to go short lightly at 3200 - 3250 with a stop - loss at 3300 [6]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Try to go long lightly at 3300 - 3350 and take profit at 3450 - 3500; try to go short lightly above 3450 with a stop - loss at 3500 [5]. - Iron Ore: Try to go long lightly at 730 - 750 and take profit above 800; try to go short lightly above 830 with a stop - loss at 900 [5]. - Spread Trading: Go long on rebar and short on hot - rolled coils (usually an opportunity appears after the Spring Festival). Layout when the spread is 100 - 120, take profit around 200, and set a stop - loss at 70 [5].