软商品日报：冲高回落-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to gradually return to the supply - demand fundamentals before the Spring Festival, with a possible slight downward adjustment after a weak upward trend, but the downside space is limited and the market is seen as a wide - range oscillation [1] - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 sugar season, with the surplus volume decreasing to 156,000 tons from 2.74 million tons in the 2025/26 season due to a decline in sugar production [1] - Whether Zhengzhou sugar can break through the pressure near the 60 - day line to form a cycle bottom remains to be observed [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - The strong rebound in the futures market has led to a significant increase in the spot listing and quotation of cotton in warehouses inside and outside Xinjiang, but the spot trading has been sluggish, and the price difference between inside and outside Xinjiang is high [1] - Affected by the general decline in the commodity market, cotton prices have significantly declined, and speculative funds are expected to flow out before the Spring Festival [1] Sugar - The Australian sugar and biofuel analysis institution Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production in the 2026/27 sugar season will drop from 197.5 million tons in the 2025/26 season to 195.91 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase by 0.5% to 194.72 million tons [1] - The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,983 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,058 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,417 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 342 yuan/ton [2] - Sugar has followed the commodity market to make up for the increase, and the processing sugar profit has further increased. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the ICE raw sugar will rise in conjunction with the domestic market [2]